SPY, QQQ, and IWM finish lower with oil elevated and September rate-hike odds firming ahead of CPI and the FOMC.
The major indexes closed lower on Thursday as hotter wholesale inflation data and sustained pressure from crude prices pushed the 10-year yield higher and lifted the market’s assessment of a possible rate move next week. SPY finished near 758, down roughly 0.6 percent. QQQ lagged more noticeably, settling near 709 with a loss of about 1.1 percent. IWM tracked the broader weakness and closed near 288, off about 1 percent. Volume was not extreme relative to recent averages, yet the session carried a clear distribution tone after several days of pressure from the high in mid-August.
Relative strength rotated toward more defensive and commodity-linked areas. Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Staples (XLP) held up best among the major sector ETFs, while Energy (XLE) retained leadership on a multi-week basis even as it gave back a fraction of recent gains. Technology (XLK) was the clear laggard, reflecting the sensitivity of growth names to rising yields. The internal sector scan continues to show Energy and related commodity proxies carrying the strongest relative momentum, while several growth and discretionary groups remain under pressure relative to their recent peaks.
Notable individual movers included Apple (AAPL), which rebounded after its product event and was highlighted as the IBD Stock of the Day. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and Qorvo (QRVO) posted solid gains among semiconductor names that still found buyers. These moves stood out against the broader soft tape and illustrate the selective character of participation when the indexes are under yield pressure.
The latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (week ending September 9) showed bullish readings at 38.0 percent, neutral at 22.7 percent, and bearish at 39.3 percent. The modest shift toward caution aligns with the recent multi-day pullback. Active-manager exposure data remains elevated on the most recent available readings. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, with the decision due Wednesday afternoon; Friday’s CPI release will be the immediate data point markets digest before that gathering.
Livermore’s emphasis on the primary trend remains useful here. The intermediate structure is still intact from the spring lows, yet the tape is requiring more effort to hold gains, and relative strength has narrowed. Selectivity continues to matter more than broad participation.
