Ahead of tomorrow’s all-important non-farm payroll the markets end in mixed fashion with the Dow leading to the upside and the NASDAQ closing marginally lower. Volume was mixed on the day with the NYSE volume coming higher. The day started out on a good foot the afternoon simply could not find buyers to keep indexes near their session highs. A perfect day would have had the S&P 500 and Dow close lower on lower volume, but today was not all that bad. We continue to see a good healthy uptrend and it will take quite a bit to knock this uptrend off its platform.
The nonsense leading up to tomorrow’s number happens every single month. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve made it worse by hinging monetary policy on one single input. So many will be distracted by whether or not the Federal Reserve will change course and deviate from its current path. So far, the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its intended path and doing so would be out of character. Whether they are right or wrong won’t matter as the market (price) will dictate the outcome. We will simply follow the price action and move forward. There isn’t any sense trying to spend brain power analyzing every bit of detail. Price pays and we’ll follow it.
Investor sentiment remained stagnant week over week. The NAAIM exposure index dipped slightly and it is likely managers were slightly fearful of the Ukraine situation. So far, the situation in Ukraine hasn’t turned out to be much of anything. AAII Bull and Bears remained essentially unchanged week over week. This isn’t much of a surprise considering the uptrend we are in and not too mention Bears haven’t completely hibernated yet. At some point they will, but for now they remain vigilant.
Let the fireworks begin tomorrow! Get out and enjoy the weekend. Aloha
