I have to admit, even though the market continues to rise without helping us out by creating nice proper bases, the daytraders are still having a ton of fun. If you like to watch the market intraday (or have time to do this) you are probably doing very well (if you are experienced) buying breakouts from nice tight 3, 5, 15, and 60 minute charts. The same thing is true for us daily and weekly investors/traders but recently we are finding a lot less to choose from.
While certain stocks like RINO, SCLN, and AVNR give us quick 36%, 55%, and 146% gains, it still remains a giant crapshoot out there are higher quality longs of mine like ARST and CGA shake me out. CGA really hurts because not only was it a large position but it lept 17% in one day on Friday. At the same time ARST was up 10% at one point in only two days. Those two stocks were, once again, my largest longs, while RINO, SCLN, and AVNR are just normal size positions-not too big, not too small.
This kind of luck has been hovering over me since AFSI/TESO of early 2007. A lot of people that are not full of historical knowledge of the stock market might be crazy enough to think “that it is the market that is out to get them.” However, I know that this is the way it is in a market that is not bullish.
Folks, this is not a real bull market. We have not been in a real bull market since 2003. The 2004-2007 uptrend was good and offered a lot of money making stocks like AAPL, BOOM, and IST. However, the TASR, EPIC, SINA, SOHU, NTES, HIL, EGHT, SSYS, and USNA’s are not going to come around until we get some kind of major tax cut or a favorable small-business loan legislative win in Congress. When some kind of job creating, saving’s inducing, and investment producing macro-decision comes along, then, and only then, I believe we are going to see the same max-green BOP, huge accumulation, beautiful tight price patterns that we saw in 1999 and 2003. Even if you look at the very first stock to run over 1,000% when the major bull market started in 1995–THE FAMOUS IOM (IOMEGA)!–there was a reason why this was happening. A major new industry (the computer) was creating some amazing products.
That innovation was not government forced. The “solar and green” innovation that is being forced down our throats by Congress remains one of the top areas to look for the next set of huge winners, and yes you can find these by looking at the companies that are making the most money by having Congress force us to give them money. If you want a more “free” set of big winners, then you know to focus on China, like we have been for a couple of years now. One of those great China stocks I was long was just mentioned: CGA. CGA is a beauty and missing that breakout and 17% gain just days after it broke down on slightly less heavy volume is a real bummer. That is the United States stock market now!
If CGA can maybe make a small gain of around 20% and then RE-base on LOWER volume, with green to max-green BOP, and then breakout on strong accumulation, without any distribution days below the support levels of the next base, then you can bet your behind that I will be getting VERY LONG this stock. The fundamentals are strong now, the chart is pretty (again, after the fakeout-breakdown), the sales and earnings growth looks to be growing really fast into the future, the industry is very strong, IT IS FROM CHINA MAKING IT BY-DEFAULT A BETTER INVESTMENT THAN A U.S. COMPANY, and the EPS and RS #’s are over 80 each. If not for that one little fakeout I would be very long this stock. Ugh. It is OK, as you will see when I finally get my act done tonight you will see how many longs I am holding for big gains. The problem, once again 🙁 🙁 :(: The biggest winners are some of my lesser sized positions. My biggest positions have the least gains. This will end eventually and is a sign of a very mixed market that is still not healed from the damage of the last bear.
Speaking of that, do not think that I am a for sure bull for life. I am bullish now with the trend up and as long as the trend is up and stocks still keep moving higher I will remain bullish. However, if you want me to become a bigger bull, I will need to see another month or longer basing period. I would love to see the market to selloff on lower volume and then bounce around for a month or two before breaking back out to new highs. Then, I guranatee I will have more max-green charts setting up all around me.
I am going to go ahead and wrap this up here. My video technician is making the free video for everyone but if you are a subscriber at the Gold level or higher you may go to the Gold Forums and watch the new video. You will learn a lot in a short time and get a little bit more of an explanation about the pain I go through when I have MS attacks. It isn’t good and I don’t think enough (or the new subscribers) even know what is going on with me. 🙂
Aloha and mahalo nui loa for all the love and support you all give me. The new video is up for subs and will be posted ASAP for non-subscribers.
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