Early morning futures were higher as global stocks rebounded. Shanghai shares were able to find their footing, but with nearly 50% of shares halted it is hard to tell whether or not this is real. Volume fell across the board as summer trade sets in. The end of the session was certainly a lot less than desirable with sellers pushing the market back to the lows of the session. Today’s session is not the type of action you really want to see. On the bright side at least the market closed in the green. This market still remains in limbo. Still, this market can shake free and return higher.
Just as this is being written it appears the Greek Parliament has an agreement in place. Stock futures are higher at the moment, but futures were higher this morning and look at how the day turned out. Of course, the EU could reject the plan and a ton of other scenarios are possible. If we get a strong day with volume it would go a long way in our books. Of course, we will need to have new long signals to confirm the move. The bottom line is we cannot predict the future and can only go on with what we have in front of us. Leave the guess work to the guests appearing on CNBC and Bloomberg.
Sentiment continues to be tilted towards the bearish end of things. AAII Bulls are sub 30% along with Bears. NAAIM Exposure index sits at about 55% long exposure. From a sentiment perspective it is certainly bearish. Is it so extreme a turn is likely? Time and price will be our signal.
There is always going to be noise generated from the media. They are out to sell ad space and need your viewing eyes to support their channel. It will only lead you down a path of disappointment. Price is our one and only focus. It is why we have been successful.
Perhaps we get a resolution on Greece or not, but our focus will be on price and managing risk. Have a great weekend.
