The Big Wave Trading Portfolios remain under a BUY condition across the board with very little weighing on our model. The only problems we see with the current rally is that we still have not rallied enough into new high ground to completely remove the previous distribution in the Nasdaq and SP-500. Outside of that, we still see a ton of momentum across a very wide group of stocks which indicates constant bullish rotation. Until this is met with some serious reversals on heavy volume, along with distribution in the indexes, we will remain under a bullish bias in regards to price.
Biotech continues to be the hot sector and as long as we see this sector lead we are happy with the uptrend. Earnings season, like always, will be challenging for some stocks but if the market can hold up during this earnings season, we will be well positioned to reap the gains that are produced from trending markets. For now the trend remains up and very clear.
What is benefiting this trend more than anything continues to be the under-invested bulls, the top callers, and the non-existent retail public. We continue to see a ton of traders try to call a top in this market and most of these traders I have noticed that have been doing this did not trade for a living during the 90s. I heard the market was parabolic in 1997, 1998, and 1999. However, it was not until 2000 that we finally saw the market really get parabolic and top.
So individuals can talk about a top all they want but the fact is that there are very few to zero charts out there that have a real parabolic look or feel to them on either a log or arithmetic chart. When these charts start to get extended and go parabolic I will know because I have studied tops and lived through two major bull and bear market cycles. The velocity of the price ascent, along with the extremely huge volume, will be quite noticeable.
When these parabolic moves happen you normally get the biggest intraday price range and biggest volume of the entire uptrend following a very long price advance. When this happens I normally begin taking profits in 25-50% of my position in a stock. We still have yet to see this happen outside of a few stocks we have held since the uptrend really got moving in December of 2012. When we are near a real top I will get many signals in many different stocks across a wide range of sectors. This happened in 2000 and happened in 2007. It will happen again…or it will not. I have my rules to get me out if it does not (trailing moving averages).
As you can see below, the big money is made in the sitting. Jesse Livermore made this very clear, history makes this very clear, and William J. O’Neil crunched the data proving this. Why you would try to trade in and out of every little move when very few are talented enough to do that. If you can do that, and you have a ton of margin to work with to make that methodology of trading profitable and worth wasting your entire day to enjoy life, then by all means do that. However, less than 0.50% of those that attempt to do this for a living will be able to daytrade for a living. So good luck. If you want to enjoy life and get the returns you see below, you might want to check us out.
I am going to go check out the huge surf rolling into our north shores. What an amazing winter it has been in the Hawaiian islands. Its been absolutely stunning and so much fun. What an amazing life we live on these amazing islands. Have a great upcoming week. Aloha nui.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT RETURN SINCE SIGNAL DATE – DATE OF SIGNAL
CAMP long – 455% – 4/26/12
WAGE long – 261% – 1/8/13
POWR long – 207% – 12/11/12
VIPS long – 184% – 7/17/13
HEES long – 173% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 142% – 9/6/12
DDD long – 136% – 4/30/13
FLDM long – 110% – 8/28/13
AER long – 108% – 6/27/13
WDC long – 102% – 1/9/13
ADUS long – 100% – 4/22/13
LOCK long – 85% – 5/20/13
ONVO long – 83% – 10/17/13
V long – 81% – 8/31/12
WST long – 79% – 1/22/13
ADS long – 77% – 12/11/12
CMGE long – 71% – 12/16/13
JAZZ long – 65% – 10/22/13
USCR long – 56% – 4/12/13
BEAV long – 55% – 3/5/13
MONT long – 49% – 12/9/13
UTHR long – 46% – 9/9/13
ARC long – 45% – 10/16/13
GLL long – 43% – 2/14/13
FB long – 38% – 8/23/13
CLFD long – 38% – 9/24/13
CMG long – 37% – 7/3/13
JBT long – 37% – 9/11/13
GOMO long – 34% – 12/13/13
RM long – 33% – 7/5/13
SSTK long – 33% – 9/19/13
UEIC long – 33% – 5/28/13
SCTY long – 32% – 12/19/13
UCBI long -29% – 8/1/13
DRRX long – 29% – 11/5/13
FONR long – 27% – 12/16/13
CALD long – 27% – 11/22/13
ICLR long – 27% – 4/30/13
MZOR long – 25% – 12/19/13
