This morning we got another read on third quarter GDP and it was up more than expected. Jobless claims dipped below 300k once again, but the good news did not excite the market enough to push higher. All eyes appear to be glued to tomorrow’s non-farm payroll figures set to be released at 8:30am EST. One bright spot on the day was the Russell 2000 closing in positive territory with the NASDAQ barely closing lower. The Dow and S&P 500 weren’t as lucky closing lower by more than .40%. Volume was lower on the session across the board putting to rest another day of distribution for the S&P 500. For five day straight the S&P 500 has closed lower and it has caused a bit of panic among traders. For us, we remain calm, cool, and collected as we remain steadfast in our process. Tomorrow will be a big day for the market and we’ll react when all is said and done.
Tomorrow’s job report should ignite some volatility in the early going session. Fears over the Federal Reserve tapering its Quantitative Easing program have grown. It really is silly trading over whether or not the Federal Reserve Trading. You are better off at the Roulette table e throwing your cash down on black. Guess are not the way to trade and even if we were to guess jobs would grow more than 200,000 and unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% would that guarantee a taper? We cannot with any reasonable certainty position ourselves to how the Federal Reserve will act nor anticipate the market movement. For now, we remain in an uptrend and we’ll leave it at that.
Today felt like a completely useless day with the jobs report tomorrow. Even the Draghi couldn’t get the markets going with his last speech of the year. In the after-hours session two special retailers reported disappointing results FIVE and ULTA. Both stocks are currently getting pushed lower after both guided lower than next quarter estimates. Given the Christmas season is upon us the guidance for lower Revenues and Earning is quite interesting. Will other retailers pick up the slack? Perhaps GPS moving higher in after-hours has taken share, but for now FIVE and ULTA look sick.
Stay away from the temptation to trade on the jobs number tomorrow. It is simply noise and your opinion will most likely be an incorrect one. Stick with the plan. Ride your winners.
