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One New Short Position For Monday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:43:08 +0000

There is only one stock that is setting up in a proper short pattern and I have to be honest the way these recent longs and shorts are rolling over and losing their pretty charts just so quickly after setting up in some nice pattern is very disturbing and somewhat ugly and very unusual. I would be very careful in taking any position in any stock right now especially with longs and shorts recently deciding to act incorrectly. What appears to want to go up appears to want to go up at first and then just goes down. At the same time what appears to want to fall 5% immediately then reverses up 6%. This is not normal and nobody knows then normalcy will return but you never know it could be today. Be careful on these new shorts and longs. This market is still a little crazy.

new short position: BIIB

BIIB is breaking down below the 50 and 200 day moving average on very strong volume with BOP getting very red and ugly. Cut your final loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

One New Short Position For Monday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 13:41:31 +0000

I suggest that anyone who decides that they have the chutzpah to short in this very bullish short-term tape to keep the short very small. This is going to be a small position as the breakdown is at the very key death crossing area where the stock failed at one moving average and broke down below another. If this short doesn’t work here, you will know we are going higher. If THOR yesterday didn’t convince us, this one definitely will because it is a real breakdown from a topping pattern.

new short position: TIF

TIF is failing right at the 50 day moving average and breaking down below the 200 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 200 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

No New Short Positions For Thursday’s Trading Session

Josh Hayes — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 02:30:00 +0000

You have to be kidding me, if you think that was going to be any new shorts for Thursday’s session. In fact, I have covered a number of shorts, including all of my short positions in those leading stocks. Every single one has been completely covered. While I do not think this rally is going to turn into a full fledged bull market, the chances are very high for a long slow bear market rally that could produce a lot of pain for those who have not taken any profits in their shorts. Therefore, if you have not covered anything yet, please do. Now is not the time to hold onto shorts that are moving higher against you. I assume this rally will eventually fail and when that happens then we can re-enter the short side and try to enter shorts at better spots than what this oversold market was offering.

new short positions: NONE

Two New Short Positions For Wednesday’s Trading Session

Josh Hayes — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 02:27:27 +0000

new short positions: MDU IMO

MDU is breaking down at the downtrending 50 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

IMO is reversing an early November breakout, below the 50 day moving average, creating a breakout/breakdown pattern, on very strong volume. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

Five New Short Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions

Josh Hayes — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 04:40:17 +0000

As the market continues to selloff without any real bounce relief you would think that their was not a lot of stocks out there that would not be too extended to the downside. While there definitely is a ton of stocks that have “nasty charts” there are a lot of stocks out there that are still just starting to breakdown and obviously since the market just topped it is going to be weeks to months before these old leaders are ready to rollover.

If anyone needs to know which stocks are looking “toppy,” you can go to the forum section and go into the area where I post all my sales. There you will see two shorting categories called “nasty” and “toppy.” The nasty section is full of charts that have been destroyed and make good shorts on low volume rallies in markets like this. The toppy section brings to attention stocks that are topping on heavy volume, churning, or are just breaking down below their 50 day moving averages on high volume. All of these stocks are excellent stocks to monitor for great short positions.

Even though we are so extended on the downside and are oversold, I assume it is still safe to short these stocks as they are all breaking down from very key technical areas. Therefore, I assume, that if the markets do bounce here, these will either not bounce with the market or will selloff. I just want everyone to know that when it looks like the markets are going to fall apart, they usually don’t and that same analysis needs to be applied to shorts. I see a lot of traders wanting to short a lot of extended stocks. Make sure you do not fall into that trap. Stocks like XL and YRCW are way too extended to short. And shorting stocks in uptrends is just stupid. Only amateur traders and traders who are very thick-headed do this trade, after learning how often it goes against you and how little reward there is compared to risk.

Be careful out there. Don’t get too crazy on the short side with the market down so much right here. It might be best for some of you newbie traders to wait for a bounce.

new short positions: DLR MRH AFG FII XEC

DLR is breaking down below the 200 day moving averages after breaking down below the 50 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 200 day moving average and your final loss above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

MRH is breaking down at the crossing of the 50 and 200 day moving average, on strong volume. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 and 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

AFG is breaking down at the 50 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close above 30.24 level, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

FII is breaking down below the 200 day moving average after breaking down below the 50 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 200 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

XEC is breaking down below the 50 day moving average and is on the verge of breaking down below the 200 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 40.96 level, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

adding to existing short position: HMN

HMN is failing at the 50 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

Eight New Short Positions For Tuesday’s Trading Session

Josh Hayes — Tue, 20 Nov 2007 02:49:49 +0000

The shorts that are going to be larger positions are CSX ETP SPG. The rest of the shorts are starter positions in leading stocks. Since I believe we are putting in a real top from our October 2002 market, I am starting to enter the leaders even though some continue to trade over the 50 and 200 day moving average. History PROVES that shorting the old leaders this early is not a safe and extremely profitable way to short stocks. The patterns you see in CSX ETP and SPG are the patterns you see before the best shorts make their biggest and fastest selloffs. It, of course, is NEVER a guarantee that it will work. But when it does work, which is more than not, it works really well. Just take a look at how my recent shots have been doing. Even the ones that I cover (IEX) due to cut loss rules end up reversing and continue to selloff. I don’t recommend getting too crazy with shorts here. As I have said over the weekend I believe we are due for an oversold bounce. It would be very good for our shorts if there is no bounce but we have come down far pretty fast and some backing and filling has to be expected. No matter what happens, the most important thing is to already be prepared for either outcome: up or down.

new short positions: CSX ETP SPG JASO NOC HPQ HET GRMN

CSX is breaking down below the 50 and 200 day moving average, on very strong volume. Cut your loss with a close over the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

ETP is failing at the 50 day moving average after breaking down below it, on strong volume. Cut your loss with a close over the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

SPG is failing at the 50 day moving average after breaking down below it, on strong volume. Cut your first loss (50% or more) with a close over the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close over the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

JASO is failing at the 11/9 breakdown, after a low volume rally, on above average volume. Cut your first loss (50% or more) with a close over the 60.19 level and your final loss with a close over the 65.05 level, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

NOC is breaking down below the 50 day moving average and reversing the late October breakout, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close over the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close over the 84.76 level, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

HPQ is failing at the 50 day moving average after breaking down below it, on very strong volume. Cut your first loss with a close over the 50 day moving average (50% or more) and your final loss with a close above the 53.48 level, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

HET is failing at the 50 day moving average after breaking down below it, on below average volume. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately. (This is the weakest short out of all my shorts and there is a possibility I will decide not to take it since it is such a weak mover with a 1.9% dividend.)

GRMN is failing at the 50 day moving average, after a low volume rally back to the average, on below average volume. I am a donkey and completely FORGOT!!! about going short this stock on Monday morning. I am very upset that I forgot and it is now costing me an extra 4.1%. But I don’t want to miss out, in case this one falls straight down below its 200 day moving average without a bounce. Cut your loss with a close over the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

One New Featured Long Position For Tuesday’s Market Session

Josh Hayes — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 01:27:43 +0000

new Featured long position: CEL

CEL is breaking out of a very well-formed cup pattern, on very strong volume. This is one of the nicer IPO charts out there with all the great daily price action (lots of bullish candlestick patterns), the steady strong accumulation, and the positive to green BOP all over the chart since its debut. Some of the items that stand out on this chart is that the RS and moneystream lines are both hitting new highs well ahead of price today and the BOP has gone from neutral yellow to bullish green. Those positive technical developments, along with the near perfect nature of this cup breakout, make this a very nice chart. The fundamentals are very strong, with the EPS growing between 55% and 107% the past three quarters, sales growing between 3% and 23% the past six quarters, an impressive ROE of 28%, an EPS growth rate of 7%, a sponsorship rating of B, a timeliness rating of B, a composite rating of 96, an Acc/Dis rating of A-, an SMR rating of A, an EPS rating of 85, and YOY earnings estimates for gains of 53% and 10% in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Fund ownership has grown from 13 to 16 to 18 funds the past three quarters showing that the smart money is steadily growing interested in this story. Ownership also owns 65% of this stock. The stock is in a bit of a risky position this far away from the 50 dma but I want some here no matter what so I am going to chase a bit. But I recommend that most investors wait for a low volume pullback before buying too much of this one. Cut your first loss with a close below the 26.23 level and your final loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move higher immediately.

Three New Short Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Position

Josh Hayes — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:21:07 +0000

None of these shorts are perfect by far. They are all just good enough to warrant me taking 10 to 100 shares a piece. My favorite short is ATI, with all that nasty red BOP and constant failures around the 200 day moving average. This one however likes to not move lower very easily. I am constantly getting stopped out on this one. However, one day this one will crash and burn and I hope this is the time for it. If I was a trader looking for the perfect short, I would not take any of these.

new short positions: BCR CNMD BEN

BCR is breaking down below the 200 day moving average after failing to retake the 50 day moving average, on above average volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 200 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

CNMD is breaking down at the inflection point of the 50 and 200 day moving average and rolling over, on very strong volume. Cut your loss with a close above the moving averages, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

BEN is breaking down below the 50 and 200 day moving average after failing to hold above the moving averages, on above average volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 200 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

adding to existing short position: ATI

ATI is breaking down at the 50 day moving average right after failing to get back above the 200 day moving average, on average volume. Cut your first loss with a close above the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.