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	<title>How To Invest - How To Buy Stocks - Big Wave Trading &#187; bulls</title>
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	<description>How to invest in the stock market today. Join Joshua Hayes at Big Wave Trading to learn how to buy stocks in good markets and avoid heavy losses in bad markets.</description>
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		<title>The Selling Continues With Stock Market Indexes Closing Near Their LOD; Charts Can Definitely Make A Difference!</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/982/the-selling-continues-with-stock-market-indexes-closing-near-their-lod-charts-can-definitely-make-a-differnce/</link>
		<comments>http://bigwavetrading.com/982/the-selling-continues-with-stock-market-indexes-closing-near-their-lod-charts-can-definitely-make-a-differnce/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2007 01:38:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/12/15/the-selling-continues-with-stock-market-indexes-closing-near-their-lod-charts-can-definitely-make-a-differnce/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Friday&#8217;s selling came on lower volume but one thing was very clear by the end of the day. The bulls have absolutely no juice and if a gigantic multi-Fed driven liquid injection in the market can&#8217;t keep the market up, I am not sure what people think will keep it up. Everyone knows that I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Friday&#8217;s selling came on lower volume but one thing was very clear by the end of the day. The bulls have absolutely no juice and if a gigantic multi-Fed driven liquid injection in the market can&#8217;t keep the market up, I am not sure what people think will keep it up. Everyone knows that I only follow the charts to make my trades. And you better believe that is the truth. But sometimes you can look at the macro economy and combine what you see with charts to give you even more conviction than you normally would have with just the charts. </p>
<p>Recently it has become clear that the individual charts that have been showing up in my long scans are deteriorating to the point where there are no perfect charts, only a few green charts, and those that are looking strong are all in defensive industries. When I combine what I see in the long scans to what I see in the short scans, I can see that the numbers on the short scans are growing and growing and the ugliness of the charts are getting pretty nasty. This can be seen on the forums by looking in the area where I post all of my sells. If you notice a lot of stocks are showing up on the &#8216;nasty&#8217; list. </p>
<p>These charts combined with the downtrends in all the indexes since the November top makes it pretty clear that we are going to be in a rough spot for quite a while. Now, I know some of you do not want to believe that and think that I am crazy. But I am telling you that I have been through enough good and bad and sideways market to have seen it all in the charts. I have also studied the market indexes in TCNet going back to the early 1900&#8242;s on the DJIA. So I have learned what bull markets look like, bear markets look like, consolidating markets look like, and even what it looks like when a bottom or top is forming. </p>
<p>From what I see now, we have a real top forming here. If I am wrong and the market has put in a real meaningful low on 11/28&#8230; then I am wrong, I admit it and I will change my current outlook. However, if we rally here and I do not find any charts at all that look like the &#8216;past big winners&#8217; that I have been posting recently, there is no way I will believe that the rally will succeed.</p>
<p>We could easily start to rally here and have a lot of stocks put in small (thanks to the low VIX) gains early but not see any stocks blastoff from long solid bases. If this scenario happens I just find it hard to believe that we could hold on. So many of the leaders that continue to rally (in the non-commodity related areas of the market) like RIMM GOOG BIDU and AAPL have serious problems with them and are all coming from lows from 2002-2005. The point there is that these leaders have been running for such a long time EVERYONE knows about them and all the negative divergences are hinting that these stocks are going to reverse and not succeed in this current run. So far my short in GOOG has picked up 24 points to the downside resulting in a nice little gain very quickly. </p>
<p>Besides having the same big cap tech leaders trying to lead now, we have the same commodity stocks running. When you go looking for brand new exciting companies that are breaking out of long well structured bases, you can not find anything. If you go back to 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2003, you can see after every bearish phase in the market (which all last at least two months minimum) there were always at least a handful of stocks setting up in solid bases with the whole base being green to max green and there were always at least two handfuls of high quality Featured stocks. This proved that the rally was ready to rock-and-roll. Right now, I can&#8217;t find anything except DAR EGN HRBN TRUE RICK and a few others. If you think these are these stocks have the ability to fly, you are wrong. They are all part of defensive sectors which historically produce less gains that Featured quality or momentum stocks. All of these have good numbers and nice charts but none of them are LOADED with green to max green BOP except somewhat TRUE and RICK. If you look at some of my past winners you can see the best stocks look much better. Until they show up, I just can not get bullish.</p>
<p>Earlier this year we had AFSI and TESO, which came right after HRZ, making late 2006 and early 2007 pretty good considering how long this rally has lasted. Which always makes it harder to make money. The biggest gains are made in the early stages of a bull market. Without the NYSE falling more than 10% from the 2003 rally till now, we have not had any chance what so ever to nail huge winners. There wasn&#8217;t a single 1000% winner in my port since selling TASR in 2003. Since then only a one 500% gain and a few 400% gains have been produced in some of my best looking charts. The 550% winner&#8217;s chart sucked me out of half of it within the first few weeks when it hit one of my cut loss points. All of the lack of huge gains and hot charts are completely due to the market not having a 10% pullback until July of this year. And the fact we have seen no hot charts since that 10% drop that has worked is not a good sign.</p>
<p>The most green charts, since then has been AGX. Of course, as soon as it gives a buy signal with its beautiful chart, it immediately fails the next day. That is a clear sign of a bad market. The other sign is the fact that all the nice charts are either defensive stocks, oil stocks, illiquid stocks with very low average daily volume, or ETF&#8217;s in closed end funds. This market looks just like the crap markets of August 2000-October 2002. Since it is just now starting to look like this, I don&#8217;t think that bodes well for the immediate future of the stock market. </p>
<p>Now when I take this and combine with everything I see on CNBC it becomes clear that we have some real problems. Back when the market was rising and everyone was crying about the subprime problem, I was listening but still taking the longs that showed up. While I was doing that, I guess a lot of people thought it was wiser to scare people away from stocks. Whatever, to each there own. Now that the market is falling and that stocks are moving down in force, only now do I care about the subprime issue which I can see taking its toll on the markets in the insuarnce, mortgage, REITS, homebuilder, banks, and brokerage stocks.</p>
<p>Then on top of that we have the worst thing possible that stock markets historically have never liked. And that is uncertainty. When the Fed lowered rates 25 basis points, wall street was pissed as everyone expected a surprise 50 basis points because the guys who are closest to all of this paper know that it is beyond ugly and is going to get extremely bad as a lot of these ARM reset. It is going to be real bad. But now you have the Fed not cooperating and instead cut 25 basis points. OK, that was foolish enough, I will give them that (at the time). But then they go and do something completely out of character that the market was just stunned.</p>
<p>They decided with the help of many banks around the world to inject liquidity into a stock market in a nasty downtrend full of major selling. nice gesture, but all you did was allow futures to fly allowing shorts to open positions in the market at tremendous prices. This allowed me to get excellent fills on ALL 13 shorts and as the day went on the markets sold off and closed near the lows. This was a complete slap in the face to the Fed and clearly shows that the market has no real confidence in Ben at all. Why? Because the market top ticked at the open and since then we are almost 5% off on the SP 600 which was the leading index on the way up in 2003-2006 and is now leading the way down in 2007. Not only is the SP 600 in trouble with it trending below its downtreinding 50 day moving average with the soon to be rolling over of the 200 day moving average, but Ben is in a lot of trouble with some big boys on the street that want the man out.</p>
<p>With all of this it just too hard for me to be bullish. Not only that, I saw that the Investors Intelligence survey came out with bulls rising to 53% and bears falling to 25%. However, on the realmoney.com poll it is the other way around. Normally, that means that on the short term we can expect a rally but in the intermediate to long term since the crowd is bullish, we should turn lower. Also the put/call is above 1.00 at 1.02 which is considered high and bullish since more puts are being bought than sold. But recently this indicator has really stunk it up and readings above 1.2 to 1.3 are needed, imo. The Investors Intelligence is the one I watch.</p>
<p>So even though the market is very ugly out there and ever day after the gap up I have been bearish and expecting lower prices (even with some subscribers being bullish and trying to convince me why), I do expect a bit of a low volume rally I guess back to the moving averages where then I expect the big downtrend to continue. This market is sick and I don&#8217;t believe a doctor can help it any time soon. When I see a lot of green charts with nice round bases full of accumulation in that base which is then followed by a breakout on huge volume, then and only then will I be bullish.</p>
<p>I hope everyone has a great weekend. Have fun and be careful out there. Newbies please stay cash heavy and watch and learn in this market. This is not the market to be going all-in on margin. There are going to be a lot of whipsaw so being safe is the best way to be right now. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room!!<br />
<strong><br />
top current holdings: YGE 88% FSLR 287% DECK 225% IHS 243% CNH 132% DECK 236% ICOC 93% MOS 360% EBIX 85% SXC 51% OMTR 309% MA 349% RICK 114% SXE 98% TDG 50% ZIXI 158% APPY 80% (RNT 23% FAF 26% SHOO 20% FTEK 28% CLP 27%)</strong></p>
<p>PS: <a href="http://www.bigwavetrading.com/link-to-big-wave-trading/">Link to BigWaveTrading.com and Receive A Free Week Trial ($25 Value). For more information, go to the homepage and click on the link to become an affiliate.</a> </p>
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		<title>IBD 100 And IBD 85-85 Are Officially In A &#8220;Confirmed Rally&#8221;; Excellent Price Action Today Signals Bulls Have Indeed Regained Control Of The Market On The Short-Term</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/903/ibd-100-and-ibd-85-85-are-officially-in-a-confirmed-rally-excellent-price-action-today-signals-bulls-have-indeed-regained-control-of-the-market-on-the-short-term/</link>
		<comments>http://bigwavetrading.com/903/ibd-100-and-ibd-85-85-are-officially-in-a-confirmed-rally-excellent-price-action-today-signals-bulls-have-indeed-regained-control-of-the-market-on-the-short-term/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2007 02:04:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bulls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Confirmed rally]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/11/29/ibd-100-and-ibd-85-85-are-officially-in-a-confirmed-rally-excellent-price-action-today-signals-bulls-have-indeed-regained-control-of-the-market-on-the-short-term/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The one thing this market should be teaching everyone right now, no matter if you are new or experienced is that it is always silly and stupid to marry either the bullish or bearish side. What we are seeing right now is a stock market that is going to do its best to make sure [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The one thing this market should be teaching everyone right now, no matter if you are new or experienced is that it is always silly and stupid to marry either the bullish or bearish side. What we are seeing right now is a stock market that is going to do its best to make sure every single trader out there who is either a perma-bull or a perma-bear gets washed out by the wild (nothing compared to 2000-2002) crazy market.</p>
<p>I am seeing some traders starting to show signs of major fatigue which is a good thing for seasoned traders since the turning points usually come when everyone gives up. However, this time things are a bit different. We just put in what appeared to be&#8211;once again, for the third time&#8211;a real top in the market. This time, unlike the other two times earlier this year, the selling got every leader, including the horseman, and this time the only sectors that were escaping were only the sectors that do well in bearish markets. Medical, Drug, Biotech, Consumer non-durable, Defense, Food, Beverage, and Telco stocks have all been doing well but they haven&#8217;t been doing nearly as well compared to the good shorts in the weakest sectors.</p>
<p>Those big gains on the short side seemed to be confirming the topping market. However, something has happened that needs to force us to put our bearish mode on hold. If you have not taken profits or cut your shorts that have not been working already, well shame on you. You should have done that by now. I have told you over and over to NOT short oversold markets and to not short a rallying market until AFTER we hit resistance. So if you have been shorting heavy the past three days, shame on you.</p>
<p>If you are still short stocks that are in solid downtrends and have not seen much buying interest the past three days then you may remain short but it is important to recognize that this rally could very well have legs. What rally you say? The rally that we are now officially in.</p>
<p>Yesterday, the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes followed-through with huge gains but for some odd reason (due to the time the indexes prices get done according to IBD) did not notify their readers of the change. I have never used these indexes to confirm the market and as from what I am reading today IBD never has either (obviously, or else I would have known). However, they have decided to now and when I look at those indexes and compare them to the stocks that are in my Featured list, I have to say I completely agree with them.</p>
<p>This market has legs! I have completely, as platinum member know, eliminated all my small starter short positions in leading stocks and am just in awe watching them make moves towards new highs. Even though I am early and wrong this time, the fact that every single one of these leading stocks show negative divergence in a multiple of TA indicators (BOP, RS, MACD, RSI, TRIX, etc&#8230;), means that they probably do not have much more in them and that the next topping area will probably be the one to short. I apologize for being early but if any of you have EVER read Jesse Livermore who was the greatest traders ever you will see he trades the exact why I do.</p>
<p>Shorting is not easy. It is very hard to do and timing is very crucial. You can not chase breakdowns when you short. You have to short low volume rallies after heavy volume breakdowns. That is what I started to do and instead the price has rallied further and now volume has entered the leaders. That is our clear signal that we are early again and that it is time to cash out and wait for our next moment. When will that moment come? I do not know. Nobody, including myself can predict the future. All we can do is follow the charts. And what the charts NOW tell us is amazingly almost a complete 180 degree turn from where we were on Monday.</p>
<p>On Monday I had very few to no nice charts with no fear in the market. Now I have a lot of solid charts (still nothing perfect but DAR is DARn nice) with the put/call ratio rising as the market rises. So now when the market sold off, the crowd got complacent but now when the market rises the crowd gets nervous. This is the craziest market when it comes to sentiment and price action that I have personally seen in over ten years. And the only reason I think it was crazier earlier on was because I was a bigger amateur and did not have a feel for the market. At least now I have a feel for it and can move quickly to maximize my gains just like the best traders of all time do.</p>
<p>The charts have turned around and there are now a lot of good looking charts. If there were more high priced stocks out there that looked like AGX, I would be screaming up and down to load up on the best stocks as a follow-through on top of all those nice charts is just a clear signal to risk a lot of money for potential huge rewards. However, right now, we don&#8217;t have that. The old great leaders are moving back up again but like I said they are doing with a lot of negative TA divergence and are doing it on lower volume than before. The nice charts are all in stocks that are either very thin, volatile, or low priced. There just isn&#8217;t a lot of high quality out there with perfect charts.</p>
<p>So right now I am not sure what this market wants to do by what my charts say. If you have been noticing though, I have recently started to go long a lot of stocks and have added to some of my existing strongest issues. Also two days ago I loaded up (but did not buy it in my IRA) on my first long since 11/1&#8242;s FNDT failure. But the point was clear that on that day my bias on the short-term changed to the bull side. EGN continues to look great and confirms that the market is strong. If the market was weak my near-perfect stock would have failed. Now that I see more and more nice charts show up like DAR and AGX it is becoming clear that the charting landscape is getting better. But until we get more DAR type charts I am not going to get too excited.</p>
<p>I will continue to remain very flexible keeping a short term bullish bias but expecting an eventual failure. I am not sure if it will be after or before we see new highs. There are just simply too many different variables that exist right now. It is just like the reference to the super strong IBD 85-85, 100, and New America indexes. When you look at those three you will see a super strong market. But when you look at the two indexes that led this market all the way up it becomes clear that the market is not strong everywhere.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 and SP 600 both rallied over 3.5% yesterday only lagging the IBD indexes. But today they did not participate on the upside and instead closed lower continuing their laggard status. The fact that the 200 day moving average is now rolling over with the 50 day moving average leading on the downside makes these indexes look very troublesome. I am not a genius but I understand cycles and normally whatever leads a bull market up leads the bear market down. So even though the leaders are still leading and the big-cap indexes are now making some headway off the lows, the RUT and SML are as weak as can be and are in a clear downtrend with some major heavy resistance ahead of it. I simply can&#8217;t see how this index is going to get back above the averages without having to test the downside yet again.</p>
<p>So I guess when we take everything in you can come away knowing that you are not the only one a bit confused by this market. Everyone is. You know how to make a bit easier? Simple. Do not get heavy on the long side unless the trend is clearly bullish on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly trend. Do not get heavy short unless the trend is clearly down on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly chart. Whenever the market is like it is now, just listen to your charts. If you see a nice long chart, take some but don&#8217;t take as much as you would in a clearly bullish tape. If you see a nice short chart, take a little but do not load up like you would in a tape like 2002.</p>
<p>The last thing I want to talk about is the Fed and Ben Bernanke. Tonight Big Ben gave a speech and said a number of things that were very interesting. The most interesting out of everything was the statement: against this backdrop, Fed policymakers will need to be &#8220;exceptionally alert and flexible,&#8221; Bernanke said. That comment probably will be viewed as a sign the Fed may lower interest rates when it meets on Dec. 11.</p>
<p>When we take what we have recently seen in the market, with the follow-through day&#8217;s in the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85, the nice charts that have recently started popping up (SIRT EGN), after all the selling that we have seen in such a short period, it does seem that being bullish is the right play, after all, and that the bear side is played out for now. This is especially exacerbated by the fact that Ben, along with Kohn, have hinted that they are going to cut rates come Dec. 11. If that is the case there is no doubt that you have to be bullish on the market until at least then. Rather if we have a sell the news reaction or if we have a further continuation of this possible oversold rally that has setup is up in the air.</p>
<p>I would think that if we rallied from this point on to the Dec. 11 meeting that maybe the bulls would lose the reason to be bullish after that bullish event is over. That would time out just about right with a lot of these charts to have low volume rallies to key resistance that could unleash another leg down in what was just recently a strong correction. </p>
<p>Either way, it doesn&#8217;t matter. What matters is to be prepared for anything and everything. The only thing certain in the stock market is that nothing is certain. Anything and everything could and has happened before and will again. The only thing we can do is play the market like a casino operates its games. We keep the odds on our side. </p>
<p>The short-term charts favor the bulls and when you get pretty charts like EGN, AGX, SIRT, ELMG, and DAR in just a few days it is almost impossible to deny that the markets really bearish look has changed. Unless all of these longs fail, there is no reason to turn bearish again until that happens. If they continue to rally like their charts are setup they are going to produce some nice gains. If after that they top out on some big volume and then our leaders (AAPL BIDU GOOG RIMM) try to breakdown on heavy volume after their low volume rallies then we will know it is safe to reenter the short side. Until these leaders stop moving up and breakdown, the shorting must remain on hold. </p>
<p>If this market has got you mad, try to get in the chat room more often. We have a lot of pros that are there to keep you cool when you are in a market environment that is not conducive to making a lot of money. You do not get filthy rich in markets like this. You get filthy rich in markets like 1999 and 2003. I wonder when our next moment is? I doubt it is this moment. </p>
<p>Don&#8217;t forget to read your Investors Business Daily &#8216;Big Picture&#8217; section to make sure you are on top of this market. That combined with this analysis should help put you on the right track. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room!!!! It&#8217;s aloha Friday&#8230;no work till Monday&#8230;..doo doo doo do doo doo doo do do do.</p>
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		<title>Stocks Close In The Green But Fail To Recover Much Of The Severe Losses From Yesterday; Where Did All The Nice Charts Go?</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/158/stocks-close-in-the-green-but-fail-to-recover-much-of-the-severe-losses-from-yesterday-where-did-all-the-nice-charts-go/</link>
		<comments>http://bigwavetrading.com/158/stocks-close-in-the-green-but-fail-to-recover-much-of-the-severe-losses-from-yesterday-where-did-all-the-nice-charts-go/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 07:05:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[13 years]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[yesterday today]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/01/stocks-close-in-the-green-but-fail-to-recover-much-of-the-severe-losses-from-yesterday-where-did-all-the-nice-charts-go/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stocks gapped higher in the morning but soon lost those gains, off the back of three weak economic numbers. First Q4 GDP came in with a final revision of a 2.2% gain. That was much lower than the initial 3.5% reported and below 2.3% estimates. Then new home sales came in with a Y over [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stocks gapped higher in the morning but soon lost those gains, off the back of three weak economic numbers. First Q4 GDP came in with a final revision of a 2.2% gain. That was much lower than the initial 3.5% reported and below 2.3% estimates. Then new home sales came in with a Y over Y fall of 16.6%. That was the worst fall in 13 years. Finally, the Chicago PMI fell to 47.9, below the neutral 50 mark, signaling that the factory sector is slowing down. However, Ben came to the rescue, with comments that the economy was &#8220;fine&#8221; and that the economy is showing &#8220;moderate growth.&#8221; This helped lift stocks off the lows, leading them to green closes. The tame gains, compared to Tuesday&#8217;s losses, however, shows that yesterday&#8217;s losses were more than just a one day &#8220;mistake.&#8221; This had to be disappointing to market bulls, even though they will not tell you it was.</p>
<p>At the close, stocks barely recovered any of their losses, with the SP 500 leading the way with a .6% gain, the DJIA followed with a .4% gain, the Nasdaq gained .3%, and the SP 400 and 600 gained .1%. This was not the kind of buying that inspires confidence that the selling from yesterday was a one day phenomenon. The IBD 100 gained 1.3% and the IBD 85-85 gained 1.2%. Both well below their 5.3% losses yesterday. Today was not bullish.</p>
<p>Volume was lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The lower volume, along with the extremely weak gains off such big losses yesterday was clearly not what the bulls were looking for. Even though they are crowing about stocks not selling off further, they should instead be asking themselves why there was not more of a bounce. The little gains with the lower volume is a clear sign that the big boys (institutional investors) have no interest in buying stocks in bulk after such a selloff.</p>
<p>Breadth was positive on both indexes. Advancers beat decliners by a 5-to-3 margin on the NYSE and by a 8-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq. At least breadth was not negative with the gains. That can be taken as a positive. However, what can not be taken as a positive is the breadth in new highs to new lows. Today there were 114 new lows compared to 94 new highs. If this selloff yesterday was in fact a one-day wonder, I really don&#8217;t think there would have been more new lows over highs on a day where all the indexes close in the green.</p>
<p>Two other items that caught my attention. One was the Investors Intelligent survey. That survey had bulls increase to a 50.5% level (that is a ton of bulls) but it also had bears increase to 26.6%. So even though the high bullishness is bearish, we can&#8217;t say that anything dramatic happened here. The other item of interest is the fact that I am getting a lot of Financial Services-Other (closed end fund) stocks showing up on my scan. These stocks show up in bear markets. These stocks do not exist or come up in my scans during bull markets. Only impending bear markets or actual bear markets produce these stocks as leaders. These stocks never lead during bull markets. According to IBD the Financial Services-Other has moved up from 93 to 14 on the list of 197 industry groups over the last six months. This has NEVER been bullish for the market, before. And I doubt it is this time around either. I have been through a lot of pullbacks and these stocks always show up in downtrending markets or markets about ready to enter a downtrend. This is history, not my opinion.</p>
<p>The only other item of interest, that I can think of, is the put/call. It came back down to 1.09 today, even though the market was barely up. This kind of semi-complacency after such a harsh selloff has something odd written all over it. I truly think the public is way to comfortable with yesterday&#8217;s losses.</p>
<p>History is against us right now. Big crashes after stocks have been rising for a long period of time (like four years!!!) are bearish&#8211;not bullish. The last time, according to IBD, the Asian market crashed in 1997, we entered a three month correction. Unless we get a follow-through any time soon, I have little reason to think that we will not have a three month or longer correction. Is it really unreasonable to think that could happen? Of course it is not. After four years of solid gains, you better believe a bear market is going to hit soon. Yesterday&#8217;s selloff, along with a look at other historical crashes after a long uptrend indicate a bear is probably where we will be going. I would err on the side of history.</p>
<p>Like I said yesterday, it is all about protecting gains and your cash right now, no matter what anyone says on CNBC. Raising cash, not buying the dips, keeping new buys small and only in leading sectors, getting off margin, cutting losses fast and getting rid of losers now, and not trying to short the market now is the correct play. It is still way too early to start shorting the market, as the market will need to be in a clear downtrend with failures at the 50 dma before that play is the right play to do; and if the market is to rally I will need to, LIKE ALWAYS, see stocks breaking out of green well-formed bases. Until either of these scenarios happen, I will be managing my portfolio and waiting for the next right time to plunge into the market and make a living/killing. There is one thing the greatest traders NEVER did and there is one thing I NEVER do. That is to force trades. If the market is not in a clear trend and there are not any pretty stocks to go long or any ugly charts breaking down near their 50/200 dmas, then there is nothing to do. I will repeat: THE BEST TRADERS NEVER FORCED TRADES THAT WERE NOT THERE. I DO NOT FORCE TRADES THAT ARE NOT THERE. Today there were no trades that were there.</p>
<p>I am still long 228 stocks and they are all still in uptrends. Until these uptrends get taken out on volume, I will remain long these stocks. So even though there will not be any new mass buys or shorts, there is still plenty of work to do to make sure I protect gains and can squeeze out as much profit on my holdings as possible. Today was the first day in over two months where I will not initiate any trades the next morning.</p>
<p>The bulls are happy that there was no further selling. All the talking heads on CNBC say the selloff is a buying opportunity. Everyone I know &#8220;hopes&#8221; stocks bounce back. If you look at mutual fund inflows, January was HUGE. There was a ton of money that came into the market in January as everyone finally believes in this rally. They are now in the red. Once again, the public, like always, is late to the party.</p>
<p>I, on the other hand, am very happy. I realize a pullback is good. A pullback allows us to get rid of laggards and free up cash to invest in the next new crop of big winners. You simply can not get charts that produce 100% plus gains in a year or less, unless you get a whole market pullback to help setup big long bases for these stocks to blast out of. You need a high VIX to get big gains. A market with little VIX, like we have had, will never give you the gains to make a killing/living. We simply need big pullbacks to give us a higher VIX and more bases. It is as simple as that. One more time: without a high VIX (preferably over 25) and long market pullbacks, you simply will not get a lot of stocks that make 100-500% moves in twelve months or less.</p>
<p>Even if we rally the next five to ten days, I would not get too excited. That is unless it comes on huge jumps in volume, big price gains, and with stocks breaking out everyone from sound fresh bases&#8230;.uh how can that happen? It can&#8217;t. There is too much damage to charts out there. It is going to take some time for more beauties to setup. Get over it and get ready for a rough market. That is what you are about to get.</p>
<p>If you are a sliver or bronze subscriber, I really do recommend stepping up to the gold. The total information available in that service is HUGE if you are inexperienced. I list my partial sales, whole sales, stocks on radar, and public portfolio holdings everyday. If you want to stay on top of the market and have the confidence of knowing you are in complete control I welcome you to join us. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>Happy New Year!; Markets Produce A Distribution Day On The Last Trading Day Of 2006.</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/118/happy-new-year-markets-produce-a-distribution-day-on-the-last-trading-day-of-2006/</link>
		<comments>http://bigwavetrading.com/118/happy-new-year-markets-produce-a-distribution-day-on-the-last-trading-day-of-2006/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 01:20:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[downside]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[happy new year]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[indexes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[losses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[NYSE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pullback]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2006/12/30/happy-new-year-markets-produce-a-distribution-day-on-the-last-trading-day-of-2006/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Happy New Year!; Markets Produce A Distribution Day On The Last Trading Day Of 2006. THIS IS THE VERY LAST FREE &#8220;DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS and NEW SWING LONGS/SHORTS&#8221; POST ON THIS BLOG. On the very last trading day of the year, stocks decided to end the year on a slightly nasty note, offering distribution days [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Happy New Year!; Markets Produce A Distribution Day On The Last Trading Day Of 2006.<br />
THIS IS THE VERY LAST FREE &#8220;DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS and NEW SWING LONGS/SHORTS&#8221; POST ON THIS BLOG.</p>
<p>On the very last trading day of the year, stocks decided to end the year on a slightly nasty note, offering distribution days across the board. There was no news catalyst on this Friday the last trading day of 2006. The only possible reason for the selling that was floating around the street was the fact that traders might not want to be long over the long weekend. My question is: wouldn&#8217;t they also not want to be short? Oh well.</p>
<p><span id="more-118"></span></p>
<p>At the close, the SP 600 led stocks lower with a .9% hit, the SP 500 gave up .5%, the Nasdaq lost .4%, and the DJIA being the leader it is only lost .3%. Leading stocks joined the SP 600, leading to the downside. The IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 index both fell .8%.</p>
<p>Volume was higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, giving both indexes a distribution day. Volume came in well below the 50 day volume average, continuing the trend of volume this Holiday short week. This is the first day of distribution on the NYSE in the past four weeks and was the third disribution day in four weeks on the Nasdaq.</p>
<p>Normally, the selling wouldn&#8217;t bother me but the fact that volume grew on a day when volume should have come in lighter and the fact that the indexes finished at or near the lows of the day throws up some warning signals to watch out for further weakness as we head into the new year.</p>
<p>Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and negative on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin. It was not that bad, considering the losses on the SP 600 and IBD 100.</p>
<p>Overall, it was a solid week. The DJIA gained 1%, the SP 600 rallied .8%, the Nasdaq gained .6%, and the SP 500 rose .5%. Even though I wanted a light volume pullback and did not get it, the small gains offer comfort that the bulls didn&#8217;t shoot the lights out only to have the bears knock them back down. Also if we combine the last two weeks, you can see the market pulled back, across the board, on low volume. PERFECT&#8230;so far.</p>
<p>For the year, it doesn&#8217;t get much better than what we witnessed. The DJIA was up 16%, the SP 500 and SP 600 rose 13%, and the Nasdaq gained 9%. Personally, for me, I still consider it a disappointing year as HOT stocks did not act like HOT stocks normally act during a strong bull market. The rally from the June-Aug lows did not have the same kind of explosive growth as in normally seen in bull cycles. However, in an environment of lower volatility (check the VIX), overall, this is to be expected.</p>
<p>This was a tought year, for your&#8217;s truly. I have managed only a 40% return and that is borderline shameful if you ask me. I had way too many great stocks make 100% plus runs left and right but by taking too much risk in cheap/loser stocks under $10 and not concentrating more into the beautiful high quality charts my portfolio suffered.</p>
<p>As the year went on I did adjust and went back to my style of 2003. Where I would take up to 3-5% of the best stocks and buy less of the cheap beauties. It did work out well, after the market started moving higher again in July. But because the rally was so iffy, I did not concentrate money like I normally do at the beginning of a &#8220;real&#8221; rally.</p>
<p>The rally off the October 2005 bottom offered TONS of quality stocks offering 100% plus gains left and right. This rally from July did not. Why? Because big caps led. Big caps simply do not rocket the way smaller stocks do and that is what happened. The lack of leadership by leading stocks off the July lows hurt my year end performance.</p>
<p>However, thanks to a great rally from October to May, I was able to beat the market by 2x the return of the top index. That has always been my goal and continues to be. Also the goal is to finish within the top 5% of growth mutual funds. If I do these things, every year, I am happy. For the fifth year in a row I am very happy.</p>
<p>This was a wild market this year with not a lot of volatility but a lot of confusion. The constant political backdrop, without a doubt, had a major impact. The liberal media continued to bash everything about the economy and that caused MANY people to doubt the market and miss out on another year of gains. Just like they did in 2003. The &#8220;I hate GWB&#8221; crowd never gets it right. And they definitely got it wrong this year just like they got it wrong in 2003 when they said his tax cuts would wreck the economy. WRONG AGAIN. LIKE ALWAYS!!</p>
<p>If you stayed disciplined, cut losses, let your winners run, and ignored the liberal media, you without a doubt had a great year. Next year should treat you right, as long as you keep playing by those disciplined rules. Proper buy and sell rules will ALWAYS beat opinions. Remember, opinions are like assholes&#8230;we all have them, they stink, and nothing but mess comes from them.</p>
<p>There is a point James &#8220;RevShark&#8221; DePorre made in his realmoney.com blog post that I want to re-post here because it is the truth: &#8220;Although the indices were up nicely in 2006 it was not an easy year for market participants. The character of the advance was quite different than anything we have seen in the last 10 years and it caught many folks by surprise. The average hedge fund failed to outperform, as did many individuals. In general there was a lot of underperformance this year.&#8221;</p>
<p>If you followed me at all this year, you can go to my blog and review my post on every twist and turn the market gave this year. I was there and took the appropriate action EVERY time. It has been this way since 2000 and it will never change. I never pay attention to anything anybody ever says. I take all my clues from the market. And if you have been reading this blog since March 2005, you will see I just simply never missed a turn by simply reading the general stock market indexes and looking at leading stocks everyday.</p>
<p>This will never change and the market will always give EVERYBODY profits if they just learn how to go with the trend and learn the important battles rules that are necessary to get this game down.</p>
<p>It is like everything else in life. The more time and effort you put into something the better you will do at it. Trading stocks is the same way. If you follow the Featured rules and practice over and over you will eventually become a very powerful individual investor. If my dumb-a** can do it. You can do it. I have no college education. My only education came from the school of hard knocks. The tuition was much lower than what you paid to go to college and grad school, trust me.</p>
<p>With that I want to wish everyone a great 2007. This is the last free post EVER on this blog. I want to thank everyone for reading and I hope I see you at the paid site. It is not that expensive and if you can not afford $100 a month for convo or $60 a month for stock picks&#8230;well son you shouldn&#8217;t be trading stocks at all then.</p>
<p>Aloha, God bless, thank you everyone for all your fantastic support and comments along the way. I wish you agreat 2007. AAALLLOOOHHHAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!</p>
<p>I will see you at the new Investors Paradise. It is not up yet, but by Wednesday we will be ready to go. ALOHA!!</p>
<p>The stock market will be closed not only on Monday but on Tuesday as well, next week. In observance of former President Gerald Ford&#8217;s funeral. This will be first incident of markets closing for four days since the disgusting terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. This time, however, you can enjoy the market&#8217;s closure. I know I will.</p>
<p>Investors Paradise.</p>
<p>New Swing Longs: AZL CAAS GOAM</p>
<p>Adding To Longs: AOI</p>
<p>Longs Up On The Day: PTT-131 JST-95 ININ-28 BMA-35 PCCC-34 CHINA-83 STEC-92 CXW-34 AOI-38 DECK-27 BAM-54 AMOT SMOD SRSL CVLT JSDA BTJ UAUA SQM IWOV IMKTA CCCO CNH IFOX PCC AMSF ACTU AB NRF NU ISLN MBLX ACHN HINT EXLS LYTS CRNT ONT CTDC NHP STZ ZNH MXIC WGA INMD OME EPHC ABCB RIV</p>
<p>Stocks That Caught My Eye But I Don&#8217; Want To Be Long: ENCO ICON PMD GMKT TPTX DBTK DVR BRR CRZ DEI NETC GT EDA ANO HELE AIXG CPY</p>
<p>Partial Profits/Losses Need To Be Taken: WSH WAUW PSMT RVSB AOB IMGN TRBN OSIR SVNT TGEN</p>
<p>Complete Profits/Losses Need To Be Taken: AW CBF LCC</p>
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