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	<title>How To Invest - How To Buy Stocks - Big Wave Trading &#187; big boys</title>
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	<description>How to invest in the stock market today. Join Joshua Hayes at Big Wave Trading to learn how to buy stocks in good markets and avoid heavy losses in bad markets.</description>
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		<title>Traders Take An Extra Day Off; Stocks Dance Around And Close Basically Flat, On Slightly Higher Volume.</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/187/traders-take-an-extra-day-off-stocks-dance-around-and-close-basically-flat-on-slightly-higher-volume/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Apr 2007 05:34:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/04/10/traders-take-an-extra-day-off-stocks-dance-around-and-close-basically-flat-on-slightly-higher-volume/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stock investors returned from a long three-day Easter weekend to a very inactive market. Even though trading was pretty wild, choppy and volatile today, the market still traded in a very narrow range and basically did not move from Thursday&#8217;s close. Stocks started the morning off higher, possibly thanks to the strong non-farm payroll numbers. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stock investors returned from a long three-day Easter weekend to a very inactive market. Even though trading was pretty wild, choppy and volatile today, the market still traded in a very narrow range and basically did not move from Thursday&#8217;s close. <span id="more-187"></span></p>
<p>Stocks started the morning off higher, possibly thanks to the strong non-farm payroll numbers. As I stated on Saturday, economist saw this number come in with a 180,000 jump in March. Well above the 135,000 estimates from economist. The biggest positive from the environment was the unemployment rate dipping to 4.4%, instead of ticking up to 4.6%. This shows that this economy is still doing very well despite the bad econ numbers we have been seeing the past quarter.</p>
<p>However, after that gap, it was just a bunch of wild and meaningless action that did show a bit of weakness as traders sold off stocks in the final hour. That reversed some indexes to close red. By the close, the DJIA, NYSE, IBD 100, and SP 500 all ticked up slightly under .1% and the Nasdaq and SP 600 lost .1%. It was a day of meaningless action.</p>
<p>Volume was higher on both exchanges, with volume on the Nasdaq coming in 12% higher and 1% higher on the NYSE. Still, volume was well below the 50 day moving average, indicating that the big boys simply did not show up today. Advancers were pretty much even with decliners on the NYSE and advancers beat decliners by a 9-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq. The put/call ratio edged up to .8.</p>
<p>The only odd thing about today&#8217;s market, imo, is the fact that stocks did not go anywhere after oil fell 4.7% to $61.51. The last time oil tumbled, stocks exploded to the upside. However, this time, stocks did not do much and even oil stocks did well today. The best of the best today was the DJ Transport avg. That average powered higher by 1.9%. The group was helped in part by Warren Buffet disclosing via SEC documents that he has purchased a 10.9% stake in BNI and also purchased shares in two other railroad companies. This along with a private equity group reportedly interested in buying DOW shows that smart money still sees value out there in this market.</p>
<p>Today&#8217;s action still leaves the market where it was before even last week started: Direction-less with no conviction to the bull or bear side. The bulls simply can not get anything going, after the follow-through day in March. The bears simply can not get ANYTHING going to the downside either. Every time the market attempts to sell-off, buyers step in and support stocks. However, that is where it stops as once the support comes in there is no more buying from that point. That shows that we are probably set up for a do nothing market environment heading into the summer.</p>
<p>This market is still not convincing me that this rally will last either. Where is the volume to the upside (especially recently)? Where are my breakouts from bases lasting at least five weeks long with great fundamental characteristics (Featured quality stocks)? They are not showing up STILL. Yes there is GEO and NTLS today. But GEO is from a much longer uptrend. This is not a fresh breakout to new 52-week highs. GEO has been in a solid uptrend for four years! So even if this breakout works, the chances of you getting another 300% plus run is near impossible. NTLS is much better. That stock at least has a chance as it is a very new IPO and this is only its second base. Still this does not instill confidence with me that this rally is going to produce a lot of NTLS type of stocks. We need more stocks with better Featured traits to breakout or we will just have to continue to nibble on the small POS that pops up everyday.</p>
<p>In saying that though, obviously, without the market being in a downtrend it is still foolish to look for and/or actually short stocks. DNDN is a perfect example of why to NEVER short small-cap stocks with over 20% of the float short. In 10 days the stock is up over 400%. If you were short that stock, you would not only be broke fiscally but also emotionally destroyed and more than likely beyond the point of return.</p>
<p>AA officially kicks off earnings season tomorrow. DNA and GE also report this week. Let&#8217;s hope that this starts some fireworks. Aloha and I will see in the morning in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>The Bad News From The Housing Sector Just Doesn&#8217;t Stop; Stocks End Lower But On Lower Volume</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/177/the-bad-news-from-the-housing-sector-just-doesnt-stop-stocks-end-lower-but-on-lower-volume/</link>
		<comments>http://bigwavetrading.com/177/the-bad-news-from-the-housing-sector-just-doesnt-stop-stocks-end-lower-but-on-lower-volume/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 03:05:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/27/the-bad-news-from-the-housing-sector-just-doesnt-stop-stocks-end-lower-but-on-lower-volume/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It was a day of bad news all around, as rising oil prices, more bad news from the housing market, and a drop in consumer confidence rocked stocks early. After the early morning rock, stocks basically spent the rest of the day boring everyone as all of the action was before the bell. Before the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was a day of bad news all around, as rising oil prices, more bad news from the housing market, and a drop in consumer confidence rocked stocks early. After the early morning rock, stocks basically spent the rest of the day boring everyone as all of the action was before the bell.</p>
<p>Before the bell, the Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 107.2 in March, from a downward revised 111.2 in February. This was the first decline in five month and below estimates, after the index hit a 5 1/2 year high in February. Then we had the bad news from LEN&#8217;s Q1 report. The stock said this quarter EPS came in 72% lower and withdrew 2007 earnings estimates. The combination of these two news events, with oil making gains helped send all stock indexes lower. The bad news continued, after-hours, for the homebuilders, but we will get to that later.</p>
<p>At the close, the Nasdaq and SP 600 led to the downside with .7% declines, the SP 500, the DJIA and NYSE lost .6%, and the SP 400 held up the best with only a .5% loss. Leading stocks kept pace with the market, with the IBD 100 falling .7%. Even with the leading stocks keeping pace with the Nassy to the downside, there still was virtually no selling in the stocks that make up this current index.</p>
<p>Volume was lower yesterday on the NYSE by about 5% and lower on the Nasdaq by 2% or so. The lower prices with lower volume shows that the big boys still are not dumping their holdings. In fact, the light volume on this pullback, on top of all of today&#8217;s negative news headlines, is a very bullish situation. Combine today&#8217;s action with yesterday&#8217;s reversal and it is hard to believe the bulls are done with the upside. You simply do not see this kind of light volume pullbacks in a true bear market.</p>
<p>Breadth was negative on both stock exchanges today. Decliners beat advancers by a 2-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq and by a 9-to-4 ratio on the NYSE. There were 183 new highs to 64 new lows. There is nothing, underneath the market, that is signaling the market is ready to fall.</p>
<p>Some of the highlights today that have to be mentioned revolve around the housing sector. The IBD Building-Residential fell 1.8% and the IBD Building-A/C &#038; Heating fell 2.2%, giving these indexes yet one more day of ugliness. The overall Philly Housing sector fell 1.5% today. It seems the pain never ends for these stocks. And by that I mean&#8230;the pain never ends. After the bell, there was even more bad news, as the FBI has started an investigation into the lending practices of BZH. The number of bad loans on their books is much higher than the national average. This sent the stock down as much as 15% after-hours. Not good.</p>
<p>So, basically, nothing has changed. The market is still in the same position as it has been in since the follow-through day last Wednesday. We are going nowhere, either up or down. A lot of traders are not sure if this is positive. Truth be told, I don&#8217;t know either. But what I do know is history. And IBD has hit the nail on the head again today by giving us another history lesson on follow-through days.</p>
<p>Even though we have not had another powerful day of gains in the market since the follow through day (the best bull markets have immediate gains), we still have not had any distribution days within the first five days. That bodes well for at least a possibility of higher prices. While no great bull market has ever started without more powerful gains on heavier volume right after a follow-through day, a follow-through day that does not have any distribution days within the next five days (like we just finished today) has a much lower chance of failing than other rallies. So basically what this tells me is that we need to be ready for more choppy trading.</p>
<p>If we do not sell-off here and instead keep rallying, you can guarantee, that the indexes will make slow steady (or slow and choppy) gains that will limiit my and your chance to make a TON of money. Like I keep saying, a bull market here is not that great of news. The gains here, with the low VIX, guarantees us that we will probably find ZERO stocks making 500% moves in six months. Even if there is one or two, trying to pick that one out of 8000 stocks is damn near impossible.</p>
<p>The chances of us going higher increases also with me finding this little gem from the Merrill Lynch Corporate Indicator. The net short position of hedge funds in the Russell 2000 is at record levels. The majority of these investment funds are not only too complicated for 99.9% of investors (nobody needs to be in anything where they do more than buy and sell stocks) but they are also ran by complete morons. Trust me, I have met my fair share of these people. Do you think they just focus on price, volume, cutting losses, money management, and studying and trying to find the greatest stock market winners? NO! They are too busy trying to let you know how smart they are. This is why the total pool of hedge funds do much worse than mutual funds. I still am shocked that people invest in these things.</p>
<p>On the other hand, portfolio managers cash balance has increased from 4.4% to 3.8%, signaling that they are more cautious now than they were in February before the sell-off. Along with that there risk appetite for stocks fell to five-year lows. This shows that even these guys, like me, feel cautious here. However, just like me (I am long 193 stocks), they are still long and are not selling off their stocks. That is why cash levels is not around 10% or more. These guys still love the stocks they are holding. Just like I do. Why do we like them? They are going up. That is all I want the stupid stock to do.</p>
<p>And on top of all of this information is the fact that the put/call ratio has jumped back up over 1 and closed at 1.1. This along with those hedge-fund douche bags shows that the market is going to have a hard time going down, with all of these short sellers. The market likes to reward the contrarians. The contrarian play right now is to be long, according to the put/call ratio and hedge fund investments in the Russell 2000.</p>
<p>But, just to confuse you and me some more, the overbought/oversold indicators that I follow have all of them now in overbought territory. The only way to work off the overbought condition is to either go sideways or lower. So expect some of that action. Based on the futures it appears we will be going lower again tomorrow. However, unless volume picks up and we get some clear distribution there will be nothing to worry about, much to my chagrin.</p>
<p>But, it doesn&#8217;t really matter. I am still long 190 plus stocks that are all putting in solid gains so I guess I should just be happy with the current gains. The gains I am seeing I am sure many people would die to be producing. So I guess I am just crying over spilled milk. But I love being able to hit home runs left and right. I do not like being a high OBP kind of guy. Because even when I can hit home runs the OBP is still high anyways. It all comes down to the damn VIX. And that can&#8217;t jump until we get a real sell-off.</p>
<p>I have ranted enough tonigh. If you are not making money in this market, I need you to please go and review all the longs I have taken since February 27. Why am I up 7% this year in my personal account, if this has been such an ugly market. Should I be up more? HELL YEAH!!!! Everybody should be with a flat market, if you are a Featured trader. But this market, right now, is not rewarding growth investors or momentum investors, unless you concentrate solely on the solar stocks. Still go review my longs. You will see all are up or still have not violated the stated cut loss area. That is bullish, not bearish. I don&#8217;t know when I will get my bear market, but as each day goes by without a sell-off, the more and more I doubt it is time for a bear market. I will just have to keep waiting for real euphoria I guess. It makes me wonder if it is all going to end with a big-bang like the final run-up in 2000. By &#8220;it is all&#8221; I mean the bubble in China&#8217;s equity market which is what is holding this whole charade up. Like I keep saying, the chart of the China stock market is the same two year chart that preceded the sell-off in the 1929 DJIA and the 2000 Nasdaq.</p>
<p>Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>A Boring Day Of Trading Ends With Stocks Mixed On Lower Volume; Best Week For Stocks In Six Months</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/175/stocks-close-mixed-on-a-boring-friday-best-week-for-stocks-in-six-months/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Mar 2007 19:25:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/24/stocks-close-mixed-on-a-boring-friday-best-week-for-stocks-in-six-months/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A boring, erratic, and overall lame session came to end Friday, after a week of surprises on many fronts. The only thing not boring today was the post-1pm EST action in the Nasdaq; up, wedge up, down, wedge down, and up. Still, that only led to a flat close. Today&#8217;s headlines were much more subdued [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A boring, erratic, and overall lame session came to end Friday, after a week of surprises on many fronts. The only thing not boring today was the post-1pm EST action in the Nasdaq; up, wedge up, down, wedge down, and up. Still, that only led to a flat close. Today&#8217;s headlines were much more subdued than the previous four days, but we still had some important numbers to digest. Existing-home sales were up 3.9% in February to an annualized 6.69 million. That was the fastest growth since April and above economist estimates. This was a welcome report, after all the thrashing we received last month. The other news item making its way around was the 15 British sailors and marines that were captured by Iranian kidnappers. However, as expected, this was not market moving news.<span id="more-175"></span></p>
<p>At the close, the SP 600 was the daily winner with a .4% gain, the NYSE followed with a .3% gain, the DJIA gained .2% finishing higher for the fifth straight day, the SP 500 finished .1% higher, and the Nasdaq bucked the trend falling .1%. Leading stocks did not do anything special today, with the IBD 100 gaining only .1%. The lack of ability to keep up with the top performing indexes is a subtle sign of weakness and may indicate that the rally is running out of steam, already, in the short-term. It is still too early to conclude for a fact that is what we have happening here.</p>
<p>Volume was much lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Volume was running about even with yesterday&#8217;s total. But around 1pm EST, traders took off early, starting the weekend early. The lower volume is just what you see after such strong gains on Wednesday. The volume on the NYSE was the lowest total since late February, showing that big funds were not interested in buying or selling stocks here. Breadth was positive on both exchanges, with advancers beating decliners by a 9-to-7 margin on the NYSE and by an 8-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq. New highs continue to trounce new lows, by 301-31. This action shows that despite the big boys being absent, breadth is still strong and there are many stocks still making gains, despite the low volume rally after the Feb 27 selling.</p>
<p>The biggest gains are mainly coming from the old leaders in the Oil &#038; Gas industry. These stocks continue to dominate the new highs list and continue to work there way back to the top of the industry group tables in IBD. Part of this is due to the fact that oil has stopped moving down. Today, oil rallied to over $62 a barrel, closing at $62.28. The gains in crude oil were given credit to the Iranians capturing the 15 British soldiers.</p>
<p>Overall, it was a great week, for the major market indexes. All of them produced significant gains, helping traders quickly forget about the pain from February 27. For the week, the SP 600 led the way with a 4.1% gain, the NYSE followed with a 4% gain, the SP 400 came in with a 3.9% gain, the SP 500 rallied 3.5%, the Nasdaq gained 3.2%, and the DJIA came in with a 3.1% gain. It was a very good week, for investors who wanted the market to recapture the losses. In fact it was the best week for stocks in six months.</p>
<p>I do have to admit that this market is holding up very well, considering the amount of quick damage off the February highs. My new buys are doing very well, since then. Most are going up and there have been very few that have not gone up and have reversed. In fact, I can not think of any complete sells out of any new buys the past month. Every long I have taken is up. The only problem is none of these longs are breaking out of sound long-term bases. And the ones that are breaking out of long bases are not Featured quality stocks. The Featured quality stocks are breaking out of shorter bases and/or are bouncing off key moving average lines indicating that it is only a resumption of an advance and not part of a fresh new bull market.</p>
<p>The volume on the way up is also well below the volume figures on the sell-off last month. This rally still looks like an oversold bounce off a very pessimistic tape. That bounce has simply come too soon. We have not done enough damage on the downside and we have not based long enough to get a real correction that could set us up for a powerful new bull market. Without this long correction, you do not have enough time go by for a change in leadership to develop. The new leadership usually comes out of longer drawn-out corrections. Not from quick collapses followed by a lower volume bounce. You simply can not create enough momentum to the upside without creating nice long green bases. And you can&#8217;t create those bases without the market taking a breather for more than a couple of weeks.</p>
<p>Instead this uptrend appears to just be a continuation of the longer bull market that started in October 2002. However, like I have been saying, this pullback is and was much different than the rest, with many charts breaking down on heavy volume. However, not all charts did break down. By not panicking and using sound discipline, I was still long 170 stocks in clear uptrends. The fact that so many stocks remained in uptrends, after the sell-off, was the tip-off that this breakdown was not necessarily going to lead to a crash. By doing that, I am still long many stocks that have now made strong gains while the market recovers. And by having cash ready for the new buys, I was able to move dead money into stocks that have turned out very well. Therefore, my account, is much higher than where it was the day after the sell-off.</p>
<p>So, there are some signs that this rally might work out for a while. However, the rally off the April 2000 lows lasted until August 2000, after a significant sell-off. How did that work out for the perma-bulls? But before I start getting all bullish again I am going to have to see more hot stocks with hot fundamentals break out of round, sound, and green bases. I don&#8217;t know how I am going to get these this far into a bull market with VIX this ridiculously low. But that is what I am looking for. However, without a big sell-off that causes a jump in the VIX, it sure is going to be hard to find these beautiful long bases.</p>
<p>So, without this pullback, the gains that we will get will not be the variety that produces many 100%-500% winners in six months. Instead you are going to have to be happy with all the 20%-150% gainers that I find. With the VIX and fear this low, it is impossible to get any real movement in stocks; impossible! This market is best for paying the bills and maybe putting a little bit of money away. This market is not for those of us who are looking to become wealthy and make a killing. Markets like 1999 and 2003 had so much fear in them when they launched there bull markets that making a killing and getting rich was not a problem. Right now, if you are looking to get rich, you have a problem: it is called the stock market.</p>
<p>Since this is not the market to be making a mint in, it must also be said that the most important play right now is to keep cash on hand. Without massive gains in the indexes on huge volume with tons of Featured stocks breaking out, you can be sure that the odds are high for this rally to fail. So since the indexes are not perfect, there is no reason to go all-in on margin here (200% long). And there will not be a time to go all-in, until you start seeing this action. Normally, like I keep saying, to burn the point in, you need a long drawn-out correction. That creates the proper environment that launch great bull markets.</p>
<p>The one important thing to remember here, also, is to not chase stocks. If you sold all of your longs, when you panicked after the Feb 27th selloff, you should step back and think about the situation. How often and how many times do you have to hear that it is never smart to panic? Then why do you still do it? I know many traders who did the right thing and sold stocks breaking down, after the Feb sell-off. However, those same traders I know dumped stocks that were still going up or consolidating. Why? Why would you sell a stock if it is going up? Especially if it was going up before the sell-off and DURING THE sell-off. If your stock rose before the sell-off and after the sell-off, yet you sold, you must recognize that you are still trading very scared and NO great investor or trader has ever become a great investor or trader by trading scared. That is a sign of personal weakness. Something I am not familiar with at all.</p>
<p>If you are still sitting in cash, that is great! Stay patient and wait for those HOT charts with HOT fundamentals. Then, if everything is perfect and the market is right, go all-in. You can make everything back and more that you might have lost if you tried to buy stocks now based on the fact that you messed up and sold them when you were not supposed to sell them. There is always a bull market somewhere, and even if there is not, there will be one soon somewhere.</p>
<p>We can even take a personal lesson by me during the recent selloff: ROCM. I sold that stock after a nasty breakdown below key support on 3/5. This breakdown came after what appeared to be, in hindsight, an early February top. Thankfully, I took 20% off there. But after the Feb selling, the stock held up well so I remained long. Then, however, going with the trend of the market, ROCM fell. And fell hard on heavier volume. After 3/5, it clearly looked like ROCM had topped with the market. But that turned out to be the low. Since then the stock has gone straight up and my 9% gain that I took on 3/5 is now a 75% gain. Do I feel stupid? Yes. But did I follow my rules? Yes. So, therefore, I do not feel like I made a severe mistake.</p>
<p>What if ROCM did not break the February lows and would have held the 50 dma? Would I still be long? OF COURSE! YES! If that is the case no profit taking rules would have been hit and I would be sitting pretty in ROCM with a 75% gain on my remaining position. Instead I stand alone. No big deal.</p>
<p>Folks, we are very late in this rally. There is clear economic slowing out there in the subprime, home, jobs, and manufacturing markets. There are more breakdowns on heavy volume with low volume rallies in individual stocks than I have seen since 2002. And everywhere I turn people are asking me about stocks because they have just recently purchased stocks, after selling their real estate holdings or getting out of real estate. They believe every dip should be bought and who is to blame them? CNBC keeps telling them that they should buy this dip as this is just a normal correction. If it is so normal, why are so many charts ugly this time. If it is so normal, why are all the talking heads on CNBC telling everyone to buy. They don&#8217;t do that at market bottoms. They only do that at or near market tops. After four years of gains without a 10% correction in the DJIA, I would err on the side of caution and still conclude that there is more risk to the downside here than the upside. If we were down for four straight years, do you think I would be saying the same thing? Of course not. This is history. And history tells us there shouldn&#8217;t be much more to go.</p>
<p>We shall see how correct history is. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room. Have a great weekend!!!</p>
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		<title>Stocks Gap And Trap Shorts On Lower Volume; Second Lowest Volume Since Last Week of 2006</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/171/stocks-gap-and-trap-shorts-on-lower-volume-second-lowest-volume-since-last-week-of-2006/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Mar 2007 01:57:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asian markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[big boys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cyh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[djia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[downside]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mergers and acquisitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NYSE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overnight success]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[short squeeze]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sp 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[svm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[txu]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/19/stocks-gap-and-trap-shorts-on-lower-volume-second-lowest-volume-since-last-week-of-2006/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It was an exciting morning, as stocks gapped higher, as many investors were expecting a big follow-through day. However, after that gap up, stocks did not go much further than that, giving a feeling of a short-squeeze and not real buying by funds. The gap up, this morning, gave credit to the overnight success of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was an exciting morning, as stocks gapped higher, as many investors were expecting a big follow-through day. However, after that gap up, stocks did not go much further than that, giving a feeling of a short-squeeze and not real buying by funds. The gap up, this morning, gave credit to the overnight success of Asian markets and the rash of mergers and acquisitions that took place.<span id="more-171"></span></p>
<p>Rumors circulated that BCS is ready to make a bid for ABN, CYH bought TRI, HERO bought THE, SVM was bought by a private equity group, TXU received a higher bid from another private equity group, and TTWO announced plans to possibly sell itself. With all of this M &#038; A activity, it is no surprise stocks were up so much today.</p>
<p>At the close, the NYSE led the way, thanks to oil stocks, rallying 1.2%, the SP 500 gained 1.1%, the DJIA and SP 600 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq lagged with a .9% gain. The positive news, that possibly bodes for further upside in the short-term, is the fact that leading stocks outperformed on the upside by a good amount. The IBD 85-85 gained 1.6% and the IBD 100 rose 1.8%. That outperformance is wider than the outperformance on the downside that we have seen since the rally failed last week.</p>
<p>Volume was lower on both exchanges. On the NYSE it was 30% lower than Friday&#8217;s total. And the Nasdaq was 20% lighter than Friday&#8217;s level. But the really high volume on Friday was due to quadruple-witching of options so lets pretend that day did not happen and we want to compare the volume to Thursday&#8217;s level. How did it do? It still came in lower. That is a negative for a day that stocks are up. Gains on lower volume indicate that the big-boys do not have interest buying stocks here and instead short-squeezes are causing bids to rise. Today&#8217;s volume was also the second lowest of the year; not very encouraging for those dip buyers, for now.</p>
<p>Advancers beat decliners, today, on both exchanges. Winners beat losers by a 3-to-1 margin on the NYSE and by a 2-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq. However, new highs only beat new lows by 170-74. There were a lot of stocks making new lows on a day where breadth was so positive. Along with that positive breadth and good amount of new highs, the put/call ratio came down to .77, indicating today&#8217;s broad rally convinced a lot of options traders that they should place bullish bets. Since that is a contrarian signal, we will see how that plays out. This ratio has been wild but has done a good job of creating short-term highs and lows with its wild range.</p>
<p>Even if we do keep rallying, you can see, via today&#8217;s leadership that we probably won&#8217;t be going higher with much power. The old leaders led today: Steel, Oil, Mining, and Banks all made 2% or better moves. The AMEX Oil index was up 1.7%, leading all sectors to the upside. There are some very beautiful oil charts out there (TESOF APAGF) and there are some setting up in nice patterns (PKD) which means that this sector could have more legs. I am long a fair amount of one oil stock I am very happy about. So I wouldn&#8217;t mind some more gains. However, overall, this is not bullish for a fresh bull market. There needs to be new leadership as there is almost (90% of time) always new leadership in each cycle.</p>
<p>So prices were higher. Big deal. Many traders seemed frustrated that they missed being long today&#8217;s move. But the market could have just as easily have sold off, considering the situation it is in currently. There is no trend and there is no volume on the upside, so betting on today&#8217;s move up was just a lucky stupid bet. Today&#8217;s gains completely felt like a short-squeeze on the 1.2 put/call ratio put buyers. There was simply nothing but back and forth movement, after the open. If this was the kind of buying for a follow-through, you would have seen stocks rally all day long, after the gap up. Instead they just bounced around, holding higher, doing their best to scare out shorts. And I believe they did their job. The put/call, as I mentioned before, fell to .77.</p>
<p>The Nasdaq, right now, seems to be having trouble getting back over that 2400 level. It is becoming strong resistance, after being strong support during the uptrend. With this resistance right here, there could be some more downside pressure on the markets soon. As we already saw on Friday, we have one distribution day already, since the rally started. Like I said, I find it hard to call it a clear distribution; but it was higher volume on a day with prices down .2% or more.</p>
<p>However, we can forget about that day if we get a follow-through day here in the next five days. We have missed the best day to get a follow-through; day four. Day four of rally attempts have normally launched the most powerful bull markets (March 2003, Nasdaq up 2.8% on volume higher than previous three months). But a bull market can still work, if we get a gain of 1.7% on higher volume within the next five to seven days. The longer we wait to get it, the higher the chance of failure. The big powerful bull markets almost always start very early after a new rally attempt starts. They also don&#8217;t have distribution days. We have one.</p>
<p>There are a lot of stocks still holding uptrends (I am long 170 stocks), but there are still NO quality Featured stocks breaking out of perfect bases. On top of that, there are very very few speculative stocks breaking out of beautiful bases. It is quite dry out there. Add to that the fact that I am shorting now and finding on average one good short a day says that the market is not ready to be bearish or bullish. It is here to wear and tire most traders out. My new longs are still acting much better than new shorts. So that tells me that if longs are doing better that I should still be working from the long side. I am just not going to put all my cash to work. I am about 45% invested in equities. The rest is in cash, waiting for a real trend. A real trend, we do not have.</p>
<p>The longer we hold up here, the more hope and greed will end up returning to the market, as the average Joe is convinced that this is just another normal pullback that we have seen since March 2003. Too bad they don&#8217;t look at charts. If they did that, they could see that this pullback looks much different than the rest as the charts that sold off did so on big volume making their charts very red and ugly. The pullback in 2005 was bad but there were still charts popping up then. There is much less this time. And this time CNBC is telling every average Joe who now watches Mad Money that they should be buying this dip.</p>
<p>I say: CASH IS KING!!!! Stay patient and wait until we have a clear trend. Then we can expose ourself more into the right side of the market. You know, the side, that doesn&#8217;t exist right now. You may dabble but don&#8217;t go all-in. I repeat: CASH IS KING!!!!</p>
<p>Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>Another Dead-Cat Lower Volume Rally Give Stocks A Green Close; I Don&#8217;t Trust This Market</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/166/another-dead-cat-lower-volume-rally-give-stocks-a-green-close-i-dont-trust-this-market/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Mar 2007 03:26:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[big boys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[djia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inbetween]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[merger and acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pullback]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sp 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[subprime loan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/12/another-dead-cat-lower-volume-rally-give-stocks-a-green-close-i-dont-trust-this-market/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stocks kept on bouncing, on Monday, as a flurry of merger and acquisition news and lower oil helped stocks finish higher, despite further bad news from the subprime loan sector. Before the bell, news that DG was being bought out by a private equity group, UNH was buying SIE, and SGP was buying AKZOY hit [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stocks kept on bouncing, on Monday, as a flurry of merger and acquisition news and lower oil helped stocks finish higher, despite further bad news from the subprime loan sector. Before the bell, news that DG was being bought out by a private equity group, UNH was buying SIE, and SGP was buying AKZOY hit the market. However, the NYSE halted trading on NEW as NEW said it will not be able to pay back some HUGE loans (NEW fell 48% overnight). This had much more of a morning impact on stocks than any of the merger news, as the market opened flat. But as the day went on traders covered some shorts helping start a low volume rally that was met with a little bit of selling at the end. Oil falling below $60 to $58.91, for the first time in three weeks, was the reason given for the markets afternoon rally. However, the lower volume afternoon rally with a last hour pullback (AGAIN) leaves much to the imagination.<span id="more-166"></span></p>
<p>At the close, the Nasdaq led the way with a .6% gain, the SP 600 followed with a .4% gain, and the NYSE, SP 500, and DJIA finished .3% higher. The good news is that the IBD 85-85 and IBD 100 outperformed to the upside with a 1% gain. This was the fifth day in a row of outperformance. But the past five days outperformance was nothing compared to how much these leading indexes led to the downside. It simply pales in comparison.</p>
<p>Volume was lower on the Nasdaq by quite a bit. It was so much lower that we have not seen volume that low since December 29. That was inbetween Christmas and New Years, which is normally a natural slow period. The reason why volume was so low today can only be blamed on the institutions not showing up. When they don&#8217;t bid stocks higher, it usually means the dumb money is pushing stocks up. That is not bullish. NYSE volume was a tad bit higher but still well below the 50 day volume average. That is clear evidence that the big boys are not buying this rally.</p>
<p>Breadth was positive on both exchanges with advancers beating decliners by a 5-to-3 margin on the NYSE and by a 9-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq. There were 164 new highs to 88 new lows. This is not bearish but it is not bullish either as new lows are still well above what they were a month ago. New highs also are no where near the point that they once were last month.</p>
<p>The biggest standout of the day, in my opinion, was the Homebuilding stocks. This sector got whacked today, with the XHB/AMEX Housing index falling 2.3%. Every stock in this group has put in a clear top almost nine months ago and have been in constant steady downtrends since. Only now are the EPS and sales starting to show that slowdown. Proving, once again, that TA always gives you sell signals before the fundamentals do. The chart is always ahead of the fundamentals, in most cases. The stocks in this group are either failing at the 200 dma (HOV MDC), breaking down through the 200 dma (LEN DHI KBH TOL), failing at key resistance (CTX), or falling right through strong support (PHM SPF MTH DHI-again BZH).</p>
<p>The other standout is NEW. NEW collapsing is evidence number 1,000,000 that buying falling stocks is purely gambling and a game for idiots and history-deficient gambling traders. The morons who tried to bottom fish this got exactly what they deserved for not learning from history that YOU NEVER catch a falling knife. NEW is down 96% plus since just this February. And you want to be long that? I know at least 10 daytraders who got F***** today hard by trying to guess the bottom of NEW. They snatched up these &#8220;cheap&#8221; shares and got the reward they deserve for playing that game: a one way ticket to the poor house. If only they would have paid some money to learn from traders that knew better than to do something this stupid. The Finance-Mortgage &#038; Related group fell 2.8%, continuing the losses that have been nailing this sector for weeks now. I don&#8217;t care what anyone says I love watching people get their ASS handed to them when they fail to follow history and the rules history has clearly laid out for successful traders to follow. Greedy people and gamblers always get what they deserve. In my eleven years plus doing this, I still enjoy watching these morons blow up.</p>
<p>Today was day five of the attempted rally from the lows. I still clearly see this rally failing. There is NOTHING that makes me think this rally will have any real legs that produce any winners any time soon. The oversold rally, however, still has much longer to go, imo. We have not sucked in enough bottom fishing bulls who blindly follow the CNBC talking heads BS that this selloff was a one time great buying opportunity. These people who do not follow chart patterns will eventually suffer the wrath of the market which does not care what the talking fools on CNBC have to say. The dumb money is still not done buying. Did you see the put/call equity ratio? It fell to .66. That is the kind of complacency we need to see to actually have this rally fail. The high put/call was helping this rally hold up. But no more can a high put/cal be used as an excuse for the oversold rally to last. The fact is the dumb money has decided the selloff was just a one time event.</p>
<p>The only people I know that are making consistent money in this market the past two months have been daytraders of the solar stocks. Last month I mentioned that if I was daytrading these would be the stocks I would daytrade as they have that intraday movement and following that is needed for good daytrading stocks. However, these stocks continue to be wild, sloppy, and V shaped on daily charts, making for horrible swing longs. Daytraders, for the first time since October 2002, look like the smart crowd. They only look smart as the daytrading market will eventually give way to a real hard downtrending market and then a good rally for active investors to go back to making big money on. The big money is made in the holding, not the acting. Daytraders NEVER outgain Featured investors in the long run. Only in the short term, like now, do they actually make Featured investing look silly.</p>
<p>This low volume rally still looks good for some more BS gains that will, of course, suck in more dumb and impatient investors thinking they have bargains. However, the CNBC cheerleaders that are leading them to this conclusion are only helping to work off the oversold condition. Once that condition is worked off, you better hope I have a lot more beautiful green charts with beautiful basing patterns. Or else we are going lower. The typical chart patterns I see now are ugly, V shaped, high volume basing moves that lead to topping patterns that lead to short patterns eventually.</p>
<p>Impatience and ignorance will kill you right here. Don&#8217;t go thinking that you are smarter than the stock market. Trust me, you nor I, are not. We are both POWERLESS to what it wants to do. Never fight the trend and never invest in a crazy market like we have now. Hold your winners, cut your losers, and keep new buys very small unless they are perfect Featured candidates.</p>
<p>Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>The Oversold Bounce I Expected Arrived Earlier Than Anticipated; Big Gains Come On Lower Volume</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/162/the-oversold-bounce-i-expected-arrived-earlier-than-anticipated-big-gains-come-on-low-volume/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2007 03:42:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asia and europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[big boys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bottoms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[breadth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[closing bell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[djia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[downside]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fasteners]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fnm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[log jam]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NYSE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[relative strength]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[stock exchanges]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/06/the-oversold-bounce-i-expected-arrived-earlier-than-anticipated-big-gains-come-on-low-volume/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stocks staged an extremely strong rally, off the back of an overnight rally in Asia and Europe. But the big log-jam higher came during comments by Ben arguing for more regulation over the mortgage giants FNM and FRE. Stocks were pulling back slightly ahead of those comments. However, that being a reason for the rally [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stocks staged an extremely strong rally, off the back of an overnight rally in Asia and Europe. But the big log-jam higher came during comments by Ben arguing for more regulation over the mortgage giants FNM and FRE. Stocks were pulling back slightly ahead of those comments. However, that being a reason for the rally is hogwash. The reason was that stocks were beaten a lot over a very short period of time and a very powerful oversold bounce was to be expected. There was a bit of bad econ news today out of the factory orders. Orders fell 5.6%, below economist expectations and coming in with the worst drop since July 2000. This had no effect on the market, as can be seen below, as all stock indexes recouped all of Monday&#8217;s losses.<span id="more-162"></span></p>
<p>When the closing bell rang, the SP 600 led the way higher with a 2.1% gain, the Nasdaq and the NYSE followed with 1.9% gains, the SP 400 and SP 500 finished higher by 1.6% and 1.5%, and the DJIA lagged the other indexes with a 1.3% gain. The IBD 100 led outdid the rest of the market, with a 2.9% gain. However, the relative strength of today&#8217;s gain in comparison to how much it led on the days that it led to the downside leaves much to be desired.</p>
<p>Even though those price gains look beyond impressive, there was something missing; volume. Volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. There is nothing wrong with that except normally on big up days you like to see volume much higher than on the days where stocks dropped. The lower volume indicates the big boys were not eager to buy stocks at these levels. To me it looks more like a big short squeeze jam, for now.</p>
<p>Breadth was very positive, on both stock exchanges, today. 196 out of 197 IBD industry groups were either higher or flat today (only the Metal Prod-Fasteners group was down). Advancers beat decliners by a near 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 4-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. This, to me, seems very extreme and is not something I am used to seeing at bottoms (if this is going to become a bottom). That is just something to keep in mind. Especially considering that new lows beat new highs today, by 85 to 79. More new 52-week lows than 52-week highs, and we had 4/5-to-1 positive breadth and are less than 10% off the highs? That seems like negative divergence to me. Just another &#8220;warning flag&#8221; on this rally being possibly nothing more than an oversold rally.</p>
<p>The fact, also, that the top three groups were Banks-Foreign (up 4.7%), Steel-Specialty Alloy (up 4.5%), and Metal Prod-Distr (up 4.4%) show that this rally is probably not the start of the real deal based on the thesis that old leaders do not lead new bull market cycles. If this is a bottom, then we have some poor leadership of past winners that have many many charts broken and/or destroyed. The fact is the stocks in these groups ALL have UGLY charts. The whole lot of them. They are all ugly. You do not see that with new leaders in new bull markets.</p>
<p>Tuesday was the first day of an attempted stock market rally. We now need to see some big gains on MUCH HIGHER VOLUME within the next four to ten trading days to start feeling more safe going back in on the long side. However, a follow-through does not guarantee we are out of the woods yet. The damage to these index charts are HUGE and there are UGLY charts everywhere. These normally need weeks and weeks if not months and months to fix themselves. Also unless the follow-through is on a gain of 1.7% or more with HUGE volume, I would not be too comfortable with the gains. You also do not want to see the market undercut the recent lows before we see these gains. If the major market indexes break their recent lows by even .10, the rally attempt is dead.</p>
<p>The one statistic everyone is talking about (and now IBD is also) is the put/call ratio. Yes, that ratio does indicate that players are making very bearish bets. However, the total ratio now stands at 1.22 which is down from the 1.8 area before the selloff started. Still though this indicator is a big head-scratcher. If this reading was happening after a long downtrend, I would take it as very bullish. However, the high number before the selloff and a still high number now is just confusing to me. I think it may help with this short squeeze rally. However, if this market is only being held up by short sellers being squeezed, when this rally does fizzle out (if it does) it could get ugly. Bottom line: let the price and volume action of the indexes be your guide during this volatile period. Let this indicator die. I know I am going to start not talking about this indicator for a while, unless something shocking happens to it.</p>
<p>Do not be quick to buy this bounce. Don&#8217;t expect that this rally will fail and don&#8217;t expect this rally to succeed. If you do that and prepare for either outcome you will be way ahead of the game. Trust me, most people, simply can not do this. However, this is necessary during the current market. You simply do not know and NOBODY knows what is going to happen next. Today shows why it is not smart to chase performance. After Monday, a lot of traders, thought now it was a &#8220;for sure&#8221; time to short the market as it really cracked open. Wrong. Once again, the market, does the opposite of what everyone expects. The best time to short is if the rally in stocks fails near resistance or their 50/200 dmas on low volume. If after a low volume rally you start to see your stock selloff again that is your clear signal to short that stock. Make sure it doesn&#8217;t pay a dividend and make sure it is breaking down on HUGE volume and the low volume rally is on very low volume. This will help increase your odds of being right on the short side.</p>
<p>Also in this market environment, I am sure you sold a stock that you have now seen rally back and then some (ROCM FTGX). Big deal!! If your chart broke critical support and you sold to protect yourself from further losses but that stock has rallied back, don&#8217;t worry about it. You did the right thing. When I look at ROCM or FTGX, for example, I now see very ugly chart patterns that I would not want to be long if I was going to be making a new buy. Unless, that chart is perfect, move on. Keep your money in your best performing stocks in this environment and don&#8217;t worry if you sell a stock and it rallies back some. More often than not they turn out to be like ITMN. If the chart is ugly, get rid of it. If you are shown a loss, get rid of it, until the market fixes itself.</p>
<p>Remember, everyone, CASH IS KING!!!!!! Until this market calms down and all the emotional tug and war is out of this market, cash is your best friend. The market will take shape, soon enough. If it is to the upside or downside does not matter to me. As long as the trend is clear and in place. Right now, there is no trend. It is volatile and choppy. I am still leaning with my bearish bias, due to all the UGLY UGLY charts out there. But no matter what happens, I am ready.</p>
<p>Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>Stocks Close In The Green But Fail To Recover Much Of The Severe Losses From Yesterday; Where Did All The Nice Charts Go?</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/158/stocks-close-in-the-green-but-fail-to-recover-much-of-the-severe-losses-from-yesterday-where-did-all-the-nice-charts-go/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 07:05:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[default category]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[13 years]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[big boys]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[bulls]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[institutional investors]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[yesterday today]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/03/01/stocks-close-in-the-green-but-fail-to-recover-much-of-the-severe-losses-from-yesterday-where-did-all-the-nice-charts-go/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stocks gapped higher in the morning but soon lost those gains, off the back of three weak economic numbers. First Q4 GDP came in with a final revision of a 2.2% gain. That was much lower than the initial 3.5% reported and below 2.3% estimates. Then new home sales came in with a Y over [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stocks gapped higher in the morning but soon lost those gains, off the back of three weak economic numbers. First Q4 GDP came in with a final revision of a 2.2% gain. That was much lower than the initial 3.5% reported and below 2.3% estimates. Then new home sales came in with a Y over Y fall of 16.6%. That was the worst fall in 13 years. Finally, the Chicago PMI fell to 47.9, below the neutral 50 mark, signaling that the factory sector is slowing down. However, Ben came to the rescue, with comments that the economy was &#8220;fine&#8221; and that the economy is showing &#8220;moderate growth.&#8221; This helped lift stocks off the lows, leading them to green closes. The tame gains, compared to Tuesday&#8217;s losses, however, shows that yesterday&#8217;s losses were more than just a one day &#8220;mistake.&#8221; This had to be disappointing to market bulls, even though they will not tell you it was.</p>
<p>At the close, stocks barely recovered any of their losses, with the SP 500 leading the way with a .6% gain, the DJIA followed with a .4% gain, the Nasdaq gained .3%, and the SP 400 and 600 gained .1%. This was not the kind of buying that inspires confidence that the selling from yesterday was a one day phenomenon. The IBD 100 gained 1.3% and the IBD 85-85 gained 1.2%. Both well below their 5.3% losses yesterday. Today was not bullish.</p>
<p>Volume was lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The lower volume, along with the extremely weak gains off such big losses yesterday was clearly not what the bulls were looking for. Even though they are crowing about stocks not selling off further, they should instead be asking themselves why there was not more of a bounce. The little gains with the lower volume is a clear sign that the big boys (institutional investors) have no interest in buying stocks in bulk after such a selloff.</p>
<p>Breadth was positive on both indexes. Advancers beat decliners by a 5-to-3 margin on the NYSE and by a 8-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq. At least breadth was not negative with the gains. That can be taken as a positive. However, what can not be taken as a positive is the breadth in new highs to new lows. Today there were 114 new lows compared to 94 new highs. If this selloff yesterday was in fact a one-day wonder, I really don&#8217;t think there would have been more new lows over highs on a day where all the indexes close in the green.</p>
<p>Two other items that caught my attention. One was the Investors Intelligent survey. That survey had bulls increase to a 50.5% level (that is a ton of bulls) but it also had bears increase to 26.6%. So even though the high bullishness is bearish, we can&#8217;t say that anything dramatic happened here. The other item of interest is the fact that I am getting a lot of Financial Services-Other (closed end fund) stocks showing up on my scan. These stocks show up in bear markets. These stocks do not exist or come up in my scans during bull markets. Only impending bear markets or actual bear markets produce these stocks as leaders. These stocks never lead during bull markets. According to IBD the Financial Services-Other has moved up from 93 to 14 on the list of 197 industry groups over the last six months. This has NEVER been bullish for the market, before. And I doubt it is this time around either. I have been through a lot of pullbacks and these stocks always show up in downtrending markets or markets about ready to enter a downtrend. This is history, not my opinion.</p>
<p>The only other item of interest, that I can think of, is the put/call. It came back down to 1.09 today, even though the market was barely up. This kind of semi-complacency after such a harsh selloff has something odd written all over it. I truly think the public is way to comfortable with yesterday&#8217;s losses.</p>
<p>History is against us right now. Big crashes after stocks have been rising for a long period of time (like four years!!!) are bearish&#8211;not bullish. The last time, according to IBD, the Asian market crashed in 1997, we entered a three month correction. Unless we get a follow-through any time soon, I have little reason to think that we will not have a three month or longer correction. Is it really unreasonable to think that could happen? Of course it is not. After four years of solid gains, you better believe a bear market is going to hit soon. Yesterday&#8217;s selloff, along with a look at other historical crashes after a long uptrend indicate a bear is probably where we will be going. I would err on the side of history.</p>
<p>Like I said yesterday, it is all about protecting gains and your cash right now, no matter what anyone says on CNBC. Raising cash, not buying the dips, keeping new buys small and only in leading sectors, getting off margin, cutting losses fast and getting rid of losers now, and not trying to short the market now is the correct play. It is still way too early to start shorting the market, as the market will need to be in a clear downtrend with failures at the 50 dma before that play is the right play to do; and if the market is to rally I will need to, LIKE ALWAYS, see stocks breaking out of green well-formed bases. Until either of these scenarios happen, I will be managing my portfolio and waiting for the next right time to plunge into the market and make a living/killing. There is one thing the greatest traders NEVER did and there is one thing I NEVER do. That is to force trades. If the market is not in a clear trend and there are not any pretty stocks to go long or any ugly charts breaking down near their 50/200 dmas, then there is nothing to do. I will repeat: THE BEST TRADERS NEVER FORCED TRADES THAT WERE NOT THERE. I DO NOT FORCE TRADES THAT ARE NOT THERE. Today there were no trades that were there.</p>
<p>I am still long 228 stocks and they are all still in uptrends. Until these uptrends get taken out on volume, I will remain long these stocks. So even though there will not be any new mass buys or shorts, there is still plenty of work to do to make sure I protect gains and can squeeze out as much profit on my holdings as possible. Today was the first day in over two months where I will not initiate any trades the next morning.</p>
<p>The bulls are happy that there was no further selling. All the talking heads on CNBC say the selloff is a buying opportunity. Everyone I know &#8220;hopes&#8221; stocks bounce back. If you look at mutual fund inflows, January was HUGE. There was a ton of money that came into the market in January as everyone finally believes in this rally. They are now in the red. Once again, the public, like always, is late to the party.</p>
<p>I, on the other hand, am very happy. I realize a pullback is good. A pullback allows us to get rid of laggards and free up cash to invest in the next new crop of big winners. You simply can not get charts that produce 100% plus gains in a year or less, unless you get a whole market pullback to help setup big long bases for these stocks to blast out of. You need a high VIX to get big gains. A market with little VIX, like we have had, will never give you the gains to make a killing/living. We simply need big pullbacks to give us a higher VIX and more bases. It is as simple as that. One more time: without a high VIX (preferably over 25) and long market pullbacks, you simply will not get a lot of stocks that make 100-500% moves in twelve months or less.</p>
<p>Even if we rally the next five to ten days, I would not get too excited. That is unless it comes on huge jumps in volume, big price gains, and with stocks breaking out everyone from sound fresh bases&#8230;.uh how can that happen? It can&#8217;t. There is too much damage to charts out there. It is going to take some time for more beauties to setup. Get over it and get ready for a rough market. That is what you are about to get.</p>
<p>If you are a sliver or bronze subscriber, I really do recommend stepping up to the gold. The total information available in that service is HUGE if you are inexperienced. I list my partial sales, whole sales, stocks on radar, and public portfolio holdings everyday. If you want to stay on top of the market and have the confidence of knowing you are in complete control I welcome you to join us. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>Indexes All Finish In The Red But Still Finish Well Off The Lows; Leading, Tech, And Small-Cap Stocks Lead This Week</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/155/indexes-all-finish-in-the-red-but-still-finish-well-off-the-lows-leading-tech-and-small-cap-stocks-lead-this-week/</link>
		<comments>http://bigwavetrading.com/155/indexes-all-finish-in-the-red-but-still-finish-well-off-the-lows-leading-tech-and-small-cap-stocks-lead-this-week/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Feb 2007 19:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2007/02/24/indexes-all-finish-in-the-red-but-still-finish-well-off-the-lows-leading-tech-and-small-cap-stocks-lead-this-week/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stocks finally decided to take a break, across the board, as stocks meandered in the red all day, closing off the lows. However, a slight change of character was the fact that there was no last hour rally. That is probably due to most traders starting the weekend early as an exhaustive holiday shortened week [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stocks finally decided to take a break, across the board, as stocks meandered in the red all day, closing off the lows. However, a slight change of character was the fact that there was no last hour rally. That is probably due to most traders starting the weekend early as an exhaustive holiday shortened week comes to an end. There was no doubt that with no economic news of significance today that digesting this week&#8217;s gains was a good thing.<span id="more-155"></span></p>
<p>When Friday&#8217;s session was over, the SP 500 and Nasdaq led to the downside with .4% losses, the DJIA and SP 600 fell .3%, and the IBD 100 held up the best only falling .2%. It was very nice to see leading stocks lag to the downside and the Nasdaq reverse an intraday loss of .7% to a .4% loss. The SOX index outperformed the indexes, once again, rallying .5%, after yesterday&#8217;s 2.8% gain.</p>
<p>Even with the losses, there were some sectors that had many stocks producing nice gains on the day. The clear winners were the Electronic-Parts, Electronic-Semi Equip, Computer-Data Storage, Computer-Integrated Devices, Commercial Services-Consulting, Steel-Specialty Alloy, and Metal Ores. If you were long stocks in these sectors, today&#8217;s selling didn&#8217;t affect you at all.</p>
<p>Volume was lower on the NYSE by a small amount. However, the lower volume combined with the small losses helps the NYSE/SP 500 avoid a distribution day. The volume on the Nasdaq was ever so slightly higher, according to TC2007&#8242;s data provider, but the intraday support off the lows with the lack of very heavy volume clearly signals that the big boys were not selling their tech shares today.</p>
<p>Breadth was almost even on both exchanges but there was a slight negative bias on the Nassy. Advancers pretty much were even with declining issues on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq decliners beat advancers by an 8-to-7 ratio.</p>
<p>For the week, it was a tale of two different markets. The big caps definitely felt pressured all week, possibly due to oil making strong gains this week. This was the first week since December that oil closed over $61. This caused the DJIA the worst damage as it helped sink the index .9% on the week. The SP 500 fell .3%, rounding out the big cap damage. However, the story was different, with leading, tech, and small caps. The SP 600 led the way, for the week, with a 1% gain, the IBD 100 gained a wonderful .9%, and the Nassy produced a .8% gain.</p>
<p>Today&#8217;s market session was another one of those great intraday reversal session. This was the sixth day in a row that the Nasdaq and the SP 600 rallied off their lows. This action is leaving tails all over the daily charts on these indexes which indicate great support for stocks at these prices. The fact that every dip gets supported is the reason these tails are created. The buyers are simply waiting to buy anything on any dip right now as they try to chase performance.</p>
<p>This week was just like the past eight month. We kept going higher and higher and the little bit of selling that did hit us sure did not do a lot of damage. Speaking of selling not doing a lot of damage, I believe we are now eight months past the last time this market had a real correction. Eight months without a correction is simply unheard of. But here it is and here we are. Where we are is at a point where there are very few great Featured quality stocks breaking out of beautiful well formed bases, big-chips are getting more attention, momo remains HOT in stocks in the solar area, new breakouts are only happening in speculative low-quality cheap issues, and many many stocks are in the middle of climax runs or exhaustion runs. Some of these are showing the clear topping signals. If you are a gold member, you know which stocks I am referring to, because I list my complete and partial sales everyday. You have witnessed me nail many tops on short term and long term runs that stocks are having. This kind of action is the classic action of a market in its late to last stage of a long four-year-plus bull run.</p>
<p>However, this market has ONLY had one distribution day on the SP 500 and Nasdaq the past month. Even with all these new speculative longs, late climax type runs by stocks, and no new Featured quality longs popping up, it doesn&#8217;t matter. Until we start getting clear distribution in the indexes, these stocks can keep making climax runs and take off to the moon if they want to. Momo has no logical stopping point; 100, 200, 300, to even 400. Nobody knows when Mr. Momo will stop. And right now does not appear to be that time either.</p>
<p>Did you see the put/call ratio after Friday&#8217;s close? The equity put/call ratio, according to IBD, is now a 1.08; the total put/call ratio, on the CBOE, is 1.42. This is stunning!! These are numbers you see after big declines that signal that the crowd is too bearish and that the market is ready to explode. However, seeing this number up here, with the market hitting all-time highs, is unbelievable. Traders are still betting against every uptick. When the market goes higher and these guys have to meet their margin they will be forced to cover their shorts and that only adds gas to the fire. Crazy, crazy, crazy game, trying to predict the top like so many options players are. If you know any of these guys, you really should just sit back and relax and watch them destroy their capital. Their mistakes and horrible trading methodology is a great learning experience on what NOT to do.</p>
<p>The bulls feel and look tired here but they still look a lot stronger than the bears. The bears simply have no control and the bulls are 100% in full control. Especially with the crowd placing bearish bets even though they say they are bullish. These are very disgusting low volatility times we are living in. And the fact that traders are only betting against this market ensures that prices will keep rising and volatility will keep falling. This gives us less bang for our buck.</p>
<p>Lets look at it this way, the eight months after the March 2003 lows produced over 1180 stocks up over 100%. The eight months after the June lows on the SP 500 have only produced 190 stocks up 100% or more. You don&#8217;t think low volatily has a difference in price gains? You are wrong. Every stock you see up 50% or more would be double to triple the gains in the 1999 and 2003 markets. You take what you can get. I gave you PTT. That is a 400% gain. Imagine what that would have been in 2003&#8230;it is nice to dream.</p>
<p>Aloha and I will see you in the chat room. Have a great weekend!!!</p>
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		<title>Stock Indexes Rally Off The Lows, Once Again, But Close Mixed</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/154/stock-indexes-rally-off-the-lows-once-again-but-close-mixed/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Feb 2007 07:14:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[It was another wild session, with an intraday bullish bias, after a weak opening. Thanks to bad news out of Iran (did you expect anything else?) and crude oil rising 1.5% on news that inventories were smaller than expected, big caps suffered. However, some positive action in Semiconductor stocks and news that WFMI is buying [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was another wild session, with an intraday bullish bias, after a weak opening. Thanks to bad news out of Iran (did you expect anything else?) and crude oil rising 1.5% on news that inventories were smaller than expected, big caps suffered. However, some positive action in Semiconductor stocks and news that WFMI is buying OATS helped save the Nasdaq. A mixed day to a wild yet uneventful session best sums it up.<span id="more-154"></span></p>
<p>At the close, the Nasdaq had another positive intraday reversal and closed higher by .3%. It was yet another six-year high for the tech heavy index and the fifth session in a row the indexes dipped lower, found support, and rallied to close near the highs. The SP 600 finished higher by .05%. This was the seventh straight positive close, for the SP 600, and was also the sixth day in a row the index has dipped into the red to only reverse and close higher. That kind of action on both of these indexes is very bullish.</p>
<p>The SP 500 was lower by .1% and the DJIA was the leader to the downside with a .4% loss. 22 out of 30 issues were in the red on the DJIA and GM and MRK were definitely the two issues creating the most problems for this index.</p>
<p>Leading stocks held well, with the IBD 100 falling .1%. The best index on the day was the Philly SOX index. That index put in a 2.8% gain, which definitely helped the Nasdaq today.</p>
<p>Volume was slightly lower on the Nasdaq and was slightly higher on the NYSE. This was the second down day in a row on higher volume, for the NYSE. However, with the positive intraday reversals and small losses, this clearly is not distribution on this index. The fact that volume is also below the 50 day volume average also shows that there is not really any selling going on by the big boys right here.</p>
<p>Breadth was even on the Nasdaq. But on the NYSE, breadth was negative, with decliners beating advancers by a 5-to-3 margin.</p>
<p>The one bright spot of the day was the Semiconductor index. That index and those stocks alone helped save the Nasdaq. Good news and an upgrade on ADI, and upgrade on NSM, and good action from LLTC ATHR TXN and MXIM was music to the bulls ears in that sector. However, this index remains well off its old highs in 2006 so I would not expect a whole lot out of this sector just yet. There is simply too much resistance in this sector for any consistent meaningful gains to be had any time soon.</p>
<p>Overall, though, this market is just insanely bullish. This insane strength, without any pullback, I am sure has surprised everyone! It has me. Everyone is still looking for a pullback, including me, and that probably means we still will not get one yet. This momentum is out of control and simply impressive. It is stunning, and even though I am starting to see many stocks go into climax runs, this market still has enough momentum to keep going higher and higher.</p>
<p>The bulls are high in the Investors Intelligence, AAII, market vane, and realmoney.com surveys. However, this highs bullishness does not correlate with the actual betting of market players. The put/call ratio, according to IBD, is at .93. According to my data at the CBOE it is around .66. The total put/call is at 1.03 for index and stock options. This is like the 20th day in a row that this put/call ratio has been around the 1 or higher level. How long can this last? And which put/call ratio is the right one on the equity? is the equity at .66 or .93. However, until the total put/call is under .5, I doubt this market will rollover any time soon. At least the put/call is not a 2, while the market hits all-time high. That would be 10x more insane than what we are dealing with now.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t get me wrong, I love making money and am making it. However, I was making just as much money when I was long 100-200 stocks and scanning only 500-800 charts a night. Now I have to go over 280 holdings and scan 1000-1200 charts every night. This is getting taxing and stressful. I swear I would really love to see a pullback here. My exhaustion is your capital gains.</p>
<p>I am beyond exhausted tonight. I am not sure why I had so much extra side-work but I did and it is time for me to crash. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.</p>
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		<title>Stocks Indexes Keep Rallying; New Buy Candidates Drying Up As Most Are Extended Beyond Proper Buy Points</title>
		<link>http://bigwavetrading.com/150/stocks-indexes-keep-rallying-new-buy-candidates-drying-up-as-most-are-extended-beyond-proper-buy-points/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Feb 2007 07:32:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Josh Hayes</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[There was plenty of economic data for the market to feast upon, on Thursday. However, neither that or continued testimony by Ben was able to really move stocks one way or the other. Though industrial output fell by the largest amount in 17 months, stocks didn&#8217;t mind and were able to close higher across the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There was plenty of economic data for the market to feast upon, on Thursday. However, neither that or continued testimony by Ben was able to really move stocks one way or the other. Though industrial output fell by the largest amount in 17 months, stocks didn&#8217;t mind and were able to close higher across the board, for the third straight day.<span id="more-150"></span></p>
<p>At the close, the Nasdaq led the way with a .35% gain, the SP 400 gained .3%, the SP 600 and DJIA followed with .2% gains, and the SP 500 gained .1%. Leading stocks in the form of the IBD 100 index gained .6%, well outpacing the broader index. However, the lagging index, has overall been a disappointment since the rally started in July/Aug.</p>
<p>Volume was lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The lower volume indicates that the big boys weren&#8217;t necessarily falling over each other to chase stocks up here, after such a strong day yesterday. Breadth was positive on both exchanges. Advancers beat decliners by a 10-to-7 margin on the NYSE and by an 8-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq.</p>
<p>There seems to be a problem with traders recently. I am starting to hear TONS of complaints about underperformance. Hello, folks. This is what happens when big-caps lead. The small cap, momentum, and tech stocks simply can and will not keep up. This bull market is more than four years old. The small-cap leadership has changed to big-caps. Therefore, obviously right now growth investors are going to underperform the market, unless they are very lucky and are hitting all the home-runs that I am finding very scarce to find out there.</p>
<p>However, I know what the real problem is. Those traders that now complain that they are underperforming were the same traders that were bitching in August that this rally wasn&#8217;t real and was only a short-term bounce. Even though stocks were breaking out of sound bases and I WAS GOING LONG STOCKS, people were bad mouthing the market saying that it couldn&#8217;t possibly rally on low volume. Well it has and it hasn&#8217;t stopped. This market has not experienced a 2% pullback in how long? It is too long. This makes a TON of stocks too extended to buy. And that is good news for people like me who were long when they were supposed to be long. But it is horrible for those watching the market run without them.</p>
<p>Now those same people are demanding to make money with new buys. Well too bad. There are not a lot of SAFE high reward/low risk buys out there. Everything is too damn extended. In the IBD 6000 index, 931 stocks have A accumulation/distro ratings, 2561 have a B, and 1216 have a C. Only 1200 stocks have D or E ratings. This shows that this market is under good accumulation and that constant accumulation makes it hard for people to find stocks not extended. It is best to stay on the sidelines, if you find yourself in this position.</p>
<p>And also, stop the bitching. You missed the right time to load up on Featured stocks and/or HOT momentum stocks. This current market is only offering crap to trade. I have been keeping all buys small since January 1st and will keep that pattern the same until I get a real pullback. Until the market pullsback 5-10%, there is no way in Hell I am going to load up on any breakout from any stock in any sector unless the market is FLYING ON HUGE VOLUME.</p>
<p>Even though there aren&#8217;t a lot of stock setting up and breaking out of nice bases, just look at sectors like the Mach-Construction, Commercial Serv-Schools, Steel-Producers, Food-Dairy, and Computer-Data Storage sectors. They are moving up faster than the overall market. Look at all the Medical stocks hitting new 52-week highs; those stocks lead in bear markets and they may be showing up a the top of the new high tables in preparation of a weak market. But the fact is these stocks are making significant gains. All of this means that there is always a bull market somewhere. Just because you are not making money now does not mean everyone else is not also. You are just in the wrong stocks and/or are overtrading in a market environment where cash is probably better off.</p>
<p>Look at the Perritt mutual fund. He holds 177 stocks (similar to me) and yet he has 23% cash. This shows that some other smart investors that love to buy strength can not find a ton of new buys either. Trust me, if you are not making a killing, don&#8217;t worry, others are not either. The only difference is they know that this is not the time to make a killing. The market will let us know when it is time to make a killing. Now is not the time, four years into a bull market and seven months without a 2% decline. We need to have a selloff before any significant money can be put to work in the next batch of winners breaking out of beautiful bases. How do stocks break out of bases when the market never pullsback to give these stocks bases to breakout of?</p>
<p>So here we are with a market that has only had two distro days on the SP500 and one distro day on the Nasdaq for the past four weeks. A market where the DJIA is hitting all-time highs and the Nasdaq fights resistance at 2500. The only logical conclusion here is to expect more gains. There is no reason for the market to stop rallying as the wall-of-worry is still very tall and the market loves to climb these walls. The put/call ratio has come down to the .75 area, suggesting the wall is starting to lower. However, with all the bitching I see out there, I am not so sure the market doesn&#8217;t have more pain to inflict the under-invested bulls and the perma-top-calling bears.</p>
<p>Unless you are a crazy daytrader, there is not much you should do here but relax and let the market run and accumulate and keep your cash heavy so that when a pullback does happen you will be ready for it with a lot of money. Patience and more patience is very important to have here. This market will either offer us something to trade with the stocks making bases now that are not on the radar screen yet or we will just have to keep watching this rally and enjoy the gains we will make with the longs that are working. Make sure to get rid of the laggards. Don&#8217;t keep trash that is not moving up when the market is moving up.</p>
<p>Great luck out there, don&#8217;t let this market get to you, and I will see you in the chat room tomorrow. Aloha!!</p>
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