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No New Short Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 01:47:54 +0000

I have four short scans and the total number of stocks/ETFs in all of them combined to be ZERO. Therefore, there is nothing to add here other than there were a few more partial sells to lock in gains on shorts and there was a full cover on a recent short. We are down to 33 shorts from 35 and a few of the new recent shorts seem to be on the cusp of losing their current downtrend. Now, you all know why I have been saying to keep your shorts small the past two months. This is also why we went from 3 longs to 10 longs this month. That was hint a rally was coming which is officially here after yesterday’s close over the 50 day moving averages on all the indexes. Have a VERY VERY Happy New Year and I will see you back here on this shorts page on Friday.

Scottish poet Robert Burns:

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And auld lang syne?

For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne.
We’ll take a cup o’ kindness yet,
For auld lang syne!

new short positions: none

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No New Short Positions For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:26:55 +0000

There was exactly 0 stocks in my short scans. However the OIL and TBT ETFs did make the way into the scan but both of these ETFs have been on my short list for around what seems like forever. Even though there were no stocks on the short scans, every on of our long-term winning shorts still says “hold on for more gains on the short side.” One new short was fully covered today. Gold and Platinum members can view that along with the five partial covers on the Gold Forums.

new short positions: none

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No New Short Positions For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:53:44 +0000

The market was down a nice little amount today but volume was not heavy enough to bring up any shorts. In my short scans we had SON, ROH, and STRA show up. SON and ROH are down too much to make a safe short and STRA is showing some recent positive divergence that indicates it is not ready to be a good short yet. Once the BOP goes red again and the volume surges on the downside then and only then will I consider entering a short in STRA. STRA is definitely the top potential short on my list as it is the last high-priced stock that is still near the recent 52-week highs. So I will keep my eye on that stock so I don’t miss the right time to go short. However, I think it might be at least till next week as I can’t imagine volume picking up the rest of this week heading into the new year. Hold on to those winning shorts and for now cash remains king over buying new longs or taking new shorts.

new short positions: none

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No New Short Positions For Monday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 02:08:38 +0000

Despite the small rally the past two days, there wasn’t a single short that we had to get rid of. So it is obvious the small rally on weak volume is just a happy “Santa Claus” rally. This might be good long term for those of us who are still carrying a lot of big-winning shorts that have big gains for the year already and are still showing no signs or putting in a bottom. This means that if we do continue to rally on lower volume that we may see this market reverse as it finally realizes it can’t gain any momentum on this rally. So if you are still short some of our shorts that have big gains, make sure you don’t cover it all in. Make sure you are doing what I am doing–hanging on to a little for some potential huge gains. There were only two shorts in the scans tonight (STRA and SON) and one of the short candidates I have had my eye on to go short for the past two weeks. However, it cracked a little today but the stock closed higher than where it opened, volume was EXTREMELY low, and BOP went from red to yellow. This is NOT AT ALL what I was looking for on a break. So hopefully it can rally a little bit from here on low volume and then reverse again this time closing near the lows, on heavy volume, with red BOP. For now, there is clearly nothing safe to do with this stock or SON. Cash is still king, unless you are holding a ton of our shorts before the September-November thrashing. If that is the case, your shorts are king. For those just getting involved, cash is king. There is no uptrend or downtrend clearly evident. Short term trend is lateral, sub-intermediate is lateral, intermediate is down, and long term is down. So we know the big trend is down but for right now the market is in no-man’s land. Cash is king, for now.

new short positions: none

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No New Shorts For Friday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 03:34:20 +0000

We had a Christmas Eve half-day session today and that meant not a lot of action at all. There was one stock in my short scan and it was ATK. ATK was an old short in September but I covered it all in October after a huge up day on strong volume. Since it was not above the 50 day moving average, I should not have covered it all and now believe I will pay for it as ATK looks ready to rollover again. Even though that short has gotten away, there are still a few high priced stocks left out there that I would like to get short if this market stays weak and they can get to their downtrending 200 day moving averages. The 25 stocks that are above 100 a share that remain are MKL ISRG NVR WTM GOOG CME ALX MA SEB STRA AZO ARDNA Y WOP FFH WSC TRIN MITSY BLK BIDU BRKB ATRI FSLR BRKA NWLI. Every stock that I went short that was over 100 a share back in the fall produced gains for me. Only a few were covered and they are still on this list. ISRG, GOOG, CME, STRA, AZO, BLK, BIDU, and FSLR are the eight stocks that I really really want to get short. So as long as we rally on low volume and the low volume rally doesn’t turn into a high volume rally, I will be waiting to go short these “expensive” stocks. The most expensive stocks are the second best shorts as they have normally gone well beyond reasonable valuation and in a bear market get major corrections. The best shorts are of companies that we know have major financial problems. If the company doesn’t make sense, is losing money, and the stock is in a downtrend, looking and waiting for the right moment to go short is by far the best way to hit home runs on the short side. I hope everyone has had a wonderful Chanukah and I wish everyone a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS on Thursday. Merry Christmas!

new short positions: none

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One New Short Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 23:40:35 +0000

I am a little surprised that with today’s low volume that we actually have a new short. The new short may appear a bit extended from the 200 day moving average but I want you to notice how much downside could still be in store for this stock. First, look at the massive amount of distribution on the chart. Second, think about China lowering rates. When countries lower interest rates that is the same thing as saying “our economy is still in trouble and we need to cut rates to hopefully get it going.” So since China is telling us that the economy still “sucks” and this stock is clearly topping on a weekly pattern, I think it makes sense to go short a stock breaking down right at the 50 day moving average on such strong volume the past two days. Other stocks I am watching for future shorts include SINA. BWP and CVO would also make good future shorts but sadly they do not have the previous uptrend to warrant a short position. Merry Christmas everyone!!

new short position: SNP

SNP is breaking down right at the downtrending 50 day moving average, on very strong volume (extremely strong volume on a 2-day chart). Cut your final loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

No New Short Positions For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 00:46:53 +0000

Despite the big losses in the stock indexes today there were two key events that prevented us from receiving any shorts to take in our scans. The first event was the overall low volume today. That prevented us from having the surge in volume that is needed for when stocks breakdown so that they can continue to breakdown. The second event was the end of day rally that took the indexes well off their lows and gave them the appearance of a slightly bullish session as a low volume selloff was contained by bargain hunters looking to come in at the end of the day and snatch up perceived bargains. Despite the late day rally, we still did not have any of our 34 shorts suffer any major reversal that called for them to be partially or fully covered. This keeps us still in a good position to profit if the market decides to fail here during the holidays and post holidays. Selling off on low volume during Christmas is not bad as long as we are followed by heavier volume buying in January. However a weak Christmas with a weak January would be very bullish as it is usually a bullish time. Even without any new shorts there are some stocks breaking down that need to work on setting up in a proper short pattern before we can actually go short. TEVA, SINA, AXYS, MDC, PPG, and SLG with more low volume rally work to key resistance would make all of these great near-term shorts. Merry Christmas and Happy New Years!!

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new short positions: none

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One New Short Position For Monday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 00:22:54 +0000

A mixed session on much higher volume, due to options expiration, left my scans with over 10 stocks each for the first time in what seems like six months plus. This gives me confidence that maybe some stocks are indeed trying to build a bottom out there. Even though there are no charts out there that are extremely beautiful, there are a lot of stocks that look to be building a bottom. Still, this market is not out of the water, and besides ATHR there still have not been any full covers from any long-term winning short position. Since these stocks are still in solid downtrends, I feel like the odds are still in my favor to take some short positions. Now, granted, a lot of the recent shorts have not worked and we have had to cut our losses. Still, just as many are working that are failing so as long as the shorts that work make more for us than the shorts don’t work we will be in good position. If these shorts fail I still wouldn’t get that upset because that only means that soon the stock market should be moving higher and you can’t get 3,000% returns in a short position. If the short works, great! If it doesn’t work we can cut our loss and hopefully some hot longs show up to make up for the small loss. Either way, we have a battle plan, and that is what you need in this market. You definitely can’t say I am not prepared. No matter what happens, I am ready. Other stocks I am watching for possible future shorts include OGE, CPB, FMER, CTAS, PNY, STE, GAS, PNR, TSCO, MASI, and FE.

new short position: CFR

CFR is failing right below the downtrending 50 and 200 day moving average, after failing to hold or get above the averages on four separate occasions, on very strong volume. Cut your final loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

No New Short Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 23:17:26 +0000

Despite the weakness in today’s session, volume was still below average, and thus there were not a lot of stocks to look at in the short scans. Of the stocks in the scan nothing is near the old 52-week highs making them great shorts. The few stocks that did show up in the scans have a lot more work to do (low volume rallies to the 200 day moving averages) before they can even be considered a good short. Stocks like LMT, CBY, LNT, NCI, and SIVB were all nice for future shorts but they all need to rally to the most far away 50 or 200 day moving averages before they can become shorts. The one stock my eye is on the most is STRA. STRA was up again today (good thing we cut our loss) and still has very red BOP and is rallying on low volume. So I am going to wait for the next breakdown through those key moving averages and the next time I will try to get more heavily short. The bad news about this stock is that I did not find any in a couple of brokers that I use so it might be tough. Hopefully more shorts can setup as this low volume attempted rally goes on. Being short is obviously right because even after getting a major cover signal in ATHR, the very next day it collapses again. This is indeed a market in a lot of trouble. The right side is still the short side if your time frame is over a day.

new short positions: none

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No New Short Positions For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

Josh Hayes — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 00:37:57 +0000

With the market now above the 50 day moving average on all of the indexes, we might have to wait a few weeks to get some of these low volume rallies to the point of clear resistance levels or the 200 day moving average before going short again. I do think we will be looking to go short again based on the technical setup of this rally. The rally is coming on very low volume, following the big volume selloff right after the summer. This low volume rally will probably end up giving us some short setups in the future but for today there is nothing to do. Some stocks that I have my eye on for future shorts include KMP, VAR, STE, and maybe SIVB if it can have a big low volume rally. Besides that another new short was forced to be covered fully with a small loss. This market is a little tricky now but it will not last. Soon a clear up or down trend will emerge. For now be careful and continue keeping that cash level high.

new short positions: none

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