Before the opening bell:
[22:17:51] xxxxxx: futures getting hit a bit
[22:18:15] xxxxxx: i bet the market get hit today
[22:18:20] xxxxxx: well i meant on monday
[22:19:39] xxxxxx: yeah i think ur right. even the last few days internally it hasnt felt that strong. feels like a pullbacck and rest is needed.
[22:20:33] xxxxxx: also the goog news will hit the nassy
[22:20:43] xxxxxx: if they are really planning to pull out of china
[22:21:30] xxxxxx: on the side note i dont understand why US is trying to push china to let yuan float in the market when they got no pull
[22:21:40] xxxxxx: first fix the house and than tell ppl what to do
[22:22:00] xxxxxx: i get so frustated when they tell us to go f-K our self
[22:22:31] xxxxxx: i havent looked at the future how much they are down
[22:23:00] xxxxxx: not crazy but 45 on the dow, 5.5 on spx and 8.5 on naz
[22:23:22] xxxxxx: of course overnight that can pick up and become double
[22:23:24] xxxxxx: let me check bloomberg what the news 🙂
[22:24:03] xxxxxx: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aznglTyjWM8g&pos=1
[22:24:10] xxxxxx: here’s the culprit
[22:25:44] xxxxxx: to me thats the excuse. market was due for a rest.
[22:25:52] xxxxxx: exactly
[22:25:59] xxxxxx: market always need the excuse
[22:26:20] xxxxxx: i might have to sell some new postions tomm which i bought a bit extended
[22:30:54] xxxxxx: yeah i am pretty long myself. i figure i would add on pullbacks but have to be very careful how i manage the positions. trying to get in the mode of holding the big winners
[22:32:41] xxxxxx: well that how this market is
[22:32:55] xxxxxx: last year i bought proper bo
[22:33:03] xxxxxx: and got shaken out so much
[22:33:18] xxxxxx: this year i’m buying them early and adding them on proper bo
[22:33:21] xxxxxx: and sitting with them
[22:34:33] xxxxxx: thats the key. What I like to do is hedge with the double and triple short etf’s but if you are early on hedging you can hurt yourself
[22:36:35] xxxxxx: this weeks pullback could be a decent one like 25-30 spx points.
[22:37:43] xxxxxx: ok gn offf to sleep
[22:38:45] xxxxxx: good night
[22:38:48] xxxxxx: we’ll see
[01:48:43] JoshuaHayes: well since everyone
[01:48:49] JoshuaHayes: thinks the market will be down on monday
[01:48:56] JoshuaHayes: i am sure we will see the lows in the AM and rally all day
[01:49:04] JoshuaHayes: never think you know what the market will do
[01:49:08] JoshuaHayes: never look into the future
[01:49:10] JoshuaHayes: just play the now
[01:49:21] JoshuaHayes: but a rest is needed
We did in fact see the lows in the AM and we did rally all day long. Never predict the future, hedge, or think you know what the market will do. It will always prove you wrong. I have been doing this full-time since the age of 16 (professionally since 18) and have learned to NEVER EVER predict or think I know what the market will do. I am prepared at ALL times for any outcome. I was not a genius for “guessing” the market would see its lows and rally all day. I just did the opposite of what everyone thought would happen. All over the web people were calling for a big down day. The futures were not even that bad. Never guess the future.
After the closing bell:
[18:45:16] crownand: IBD ran an article in the New America section on SMCI
[18:45:53] crownand: You read it, and you want more of SMCI, now!
[18:46:10] crownand: I am glad I am hear Josh, thanks man, for keeping it real.
[18:46:43] crownand: I used to be a big IBD reader, and it’d pay off sometimes, but it’s all about charts.
[18:47:15] crownand: I just bring this up because you’ve got SMCI’s cousin (SGI) as a partial sell tonight.
[18:47:19] crownand: Lesson learned.
[18:47:56] JoshuaHayes: http://www.bigwavetrading.com/2010/03/1 … ession-78/
[18:48:24] JoshuaHayes: we sold 20% of SGI at the top of the short term extension
[18:48:32] JoshuaHayes: but with the break of the downtrend line I am selling off another 10%
[18:48:38] JoshuaHayes: going to move the money to something that could move
[18:48:44] JoshuaHayes: you are VERY welcome Crownand 🙂
[18:48:51] JoshuaHayes: IBD is still great!!! for new invstors
[18:49:07] JoshuaHayes: but remember not even O’Neil’s money manager stick to the methodology taught
[18:49:11] JoshuaHayes: charts are working now
[18:49:13] JoshuaHayes: but in a mixed market
[18:49:19] JoshuaHayes: they will literally be 50/50
[18:49:23] JoshuaHayes: or 30/70
[18:49:25] JoshuaHayes: HOWEVER
[18:49:29] JoshuaHayes: by cutting those losses short
[18:49:32] JoshuaHayes: learning when to take some profits
[18:49:41] JoshuaHayes: and holding on to the big winners that show nothing wrong
[18:49:45] JoshuaHayes: you will always come out ahead
[18:49:49] JoshuaHayes: I remind traders all the time
[18:49:53] JoshuaHayes: the BEST baseball hitters
[18:49:57] JoshuaHayes: FAIL 7 out of 10 times
[18:50:05] JoshuaHayes: they only get it right 3 out of 10 times
[18:50:06] JoshuaHayes: at the same time
[18:50:10] JoshuaHayes: the best poker players KNOW
[18:50:12] JoshuaHayes: that in a ring game
[18:50:19] JoshuaHayes: out of every 10 hands dealt
[18:50:24] JoshuaHayes: in texas hold em
[18:50:26] JoshuaHayes: you will ONLY
[18:50:29] JoshuaHayes: play 1 to 2 on average
[18:50:45] JoshuaHayes: how many ppl do you know that call the big blind or call a raise or even raise w/ crap hands
[18:50:51] JoshuaHayes: THE BEST know that even with QQ or KK
[18:51:07] JoshuaHayes: with 2 or 3 raises in front of them they need to fold
[18:51:09] JoshuaHayes: someone has the AA
[18:51:20] JoshuaHayes: it is odds
[18:51:23] JoshuaHayes: and discipline
[18:51:27] JoshuaHayes: always has been always will be
