Ever since QE started in 2008 there have been very rare incidences where we could say with some confidence that the current situation looked bullish or bearish. The lack of prices responding how they normally respond to certain situations has definitely made investing in a post-QE world for Trend Followers a bit tricky. Fortunately, right now, everything is lining up perfectly. Does that mean it will stay this way? Of course not. It just means that we have very high odd probabilities, this time around, that this trend could have legs.
While anything can and will happen in the stock market one thing is clear. Stocks are moving up on increasing volume across the board with the major market averages breaking out to new highs. This move is coming after a very volatile period in the market which left some investors in the dark expecting a market pullback. The good news for us at Big Wave Trading is that we obeyed our rules and held our winning stocks that did not violate their trailing Sell Stops or ATRs, during this period. This has now set us up for some large potential gains.
During the recent volatile market pullback we only had one index ever switch to an operational SELL signal and that was the DJIA. That signal was very short lived and switched back to a NEUTRAL signal quickly. On 2/10/15 our market model switched back to an operational BUY signal but by the time this happened we were already fully invested in our cash accounts and on margin in our risk accounts. This is the first time since 2008 that this has happened.
Following our models switching back to an operational BUY signal on 2/10/15, the next best thing happened. We got immediate follow-through with a breakout to new highs on the Nasdaq which was then immediately confirmed the next day with further gains and the Russell 2000 breaking out to new 52-week highs. It seriously doesn’t get much better than that though it could have been better. Volume was above average on Thursday in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq but it wasn’t explosive. The gains on Friday were also lacking an explosive surge in volume. Still volume was well above average both days on the Nasdaq giving me all the confirmation I need a QE market to know we are on the right side.
Going into the shortened week we see no signs of any potential market top short-term via price action in any big-cap leading stocks. Further confirmation of the current uptrend can be found in the four oscillators we track on all of the major market averages. Our slower Wilders RSI, Stochastics, Time Segment Volume, and MACD settings are all trending higher with their respective moving averages trending higher also. Only the slow Stochastics have entered overbought territory and it should be noted quick overbought readings normally stay overbought for a period of time when the other oscillators are confirming the move. The fact that we have such a strong move and our oscillators do not indicate we are anywhere near overbought could produce a further short-term price spike to the upside in stocks.
The other good news is that despite being fully invested we continue to see tons of setups out there in our high quality CANSLIM/Perfect Speculator scans. We have two new long signals on Friday from these scans and two add signals from these scans. On top of that, handfuls of stocks are setting up in proper consolidation patterns that can launch big quick price moves once they break out from these coiling bases. When you have so many observable bullish price points that is confirmed via the bottom line it doesn’t pay to fight the trend by trying to top call this market, talk this market down, or even worse shorting these price breakouts.
While it is impossible to predict the future, the short-term future looks bright for longs. Will it stay that way for a long time? Nobody knows. It is impossible to predict the future if you can not control the future. Last time I checked no one man can control the market and therefore hence he can not possibly know what tomorrow brings. As it is, the trend is up, our leading stocks are working really well, and many more are setting up in the wings. As long as this technical condition is present in the market, riding this trend higher is the only course of action that makes sense. And we will do just that.
Enjoy the rest of your long Presidents Day weekend. I hope everyone had a lovely Valentines Day with their significant other or alone. Let’s see if the market can either add to these gains next week or consolidate these gains constructively. The one thing we do not want to see is an all out reversal on huge volume. If that happens, our outlook will change significantly. If that happens, our Stops will protect us. Just like they always do. Thank you. I’ll see you in the chat room on Tuesday. Aloha.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT RETURN SINCE SIGNAL – SIGNAL DATE
VIPS long – +508% – 7/17/13
OVAS long – +338% – 8/8/14
AGIO long – +135% – 9/24/14
VDSI long – +95% – 8/4/14
PAYC long – +83% – 10/30/14
SWKS long – +46% – 10/28/14
TASR long – +42% – 11/10/14
CVTI long – +41% – 11/3/14
RUBI long – +40% – 10/29/14
EA long – +36% – 11/10/14
AVGO long – +30% – 10/28/14
Josh, love your daily write up. Is there a reason you havn’t cashed out of VIPS and allocated that money toward more promising signals? Seems other stocks are leaders now.
VIPS has not violated the 200 Day Moving Average on a closing basis. That has been and always will be our final profit taking level in a huge winner. If VIPS decides to rip higher here and double, I do not want to lose my initial position. Jesse Livermore’s advice. Not mine. When VIPS closes below its trailing 200 DMA, like every big winner we have ever owned, we will sell out the last of our remaining shares. That being said, there are times when we would not do that. If the stock closes below the 200 DMA but has a big rally off the intraday lows we would then place Sell Stops on the final position .01 cent below that 200 DMA violation’s LOD.
Thank you so much, Luke. Very much appreciated. While some of the commentary is my opinion remember I try to only give factual data. I don’t try to interject my opinions in my commentary and analysis. That being said, I am very happy you enjoy it. Best of luck to you too. Aloha.
You’re the man – takes nuts to put your opinions out there on a daily basis. Best of luck.
Thank you Luke. The advantage Big Wave Trading members have is having the confidence to hang onto stocks like VIPS giving a %500+ return. These types of stocks make a tremendous difference in your portfolio. Mind you, not all signals lead to 500%+ gains. When you do catch one they make a gigantic difference.
Monster day for VIPS!
Why you cannot give up on winners until they give a final cut loss signal.