From the Trading Desk

AAPL Drives Stocks Higher at the Close as Volume Slips

The Bank of England and European Central Bank kicked off the day with holding their rates steady. Neither rate announcement spurred much movement the reaction by the EURO certainly kicked off selling in the US markets sending the US markets to their lows of the session. Selling intensified throughout the morning as the EURUSD dove. Buyers were able to step into the market and were able to push the market back to the mid-point of the session. AAPL at the closed pushed the market back to opening prices as the company announced a review of its cash position. Volume ended lower on the session despite the buying at mid-day and AAPLs late day push. We remain in an uptrend and despite what you may see intra-day we’ll remain disciplined.

AAPL has been quite the stock since the lows of 2009. It has been blamed for holding back the NASDAQ from hitting new highs. However, today it single handedly lifted the NASDAQ from its lows. Even in the last 15 minutes of the session it appeared the NASDAQ was ready to head back to the lows of the day when news hit regarding AAPL’s review of its cash. The stock did go ex today with its current dividend and with the news today it wouldn’t surprise me if a combination of a buyback and special dividend will be announced.

Sentiment continues to run high amongst the bull camp. AAII bull respondents did slip from 48 to 43 with bears jumping to 29%. II Bulls hit the week at 55% (59% 5 year high) and bears coming in the week at 21% (16% 5 year low). NAAIM investment manager survey saw leverage come off the books to 95% long. Sentiment remains high here, but it can remain high for quite some time.

Our uptrend remains in place and we have yet to see any major days of distribution. The same cannot be said for a few European indexes. The DAX, FTSE MIB, and IBEX all are below their 50 day moving averages with big time distribution. Europe may be cracking, but the US appears to be holding steady. Until we get signals of a market correction we’ll remain long.

TICKER ST TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE %
SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 150.96 -0.13%
IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 90.16 -0.33%
QQQ UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 67.30 0.09%
USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 34.68 -1.03%
UNG DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 18.54 -4.24%
GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 161.84 -0.34%
SLV DOWNTREND CHANGE 2/7/2013 30.46 -1.14%
DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 28.44 -0.39%
FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 104.71 -0.13%
FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 132.92 -0.90%
TLT DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 116.93 -0.22%

SLV changed trend today. Yes central banks have their printing presses in hyper drive, but we’ll follow our trend following signals.

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