From the Trading Desk

S&P 500 Hits another High as Crude Oil Nears $100

Once again buyers support the market at the lows. It has been the trend as of late to find buyers as the market appears to be in free fall. Positive data from Case-Shiller did help the mood. Volume rose on the day across the board showing institutions were quite active in the market. Technology stocks, despite AAPL finishing in the green had a tough day with the likes of VMW, WDC, and STX had tough days. This market continues to hit new highs despite “overbought” conditions. The market now turns its attention to tomorrow’s release of fourth quarter GDP and the FOMC meeting minutes.

Tomorrow will be a big day for the market with GDP and the Fed. Fed days are always fun with wild intraday swings. GDP estimates range between 1.1-1.5%, but even if GDP prints at 1.5% is still very pathetic. Despite all the Fed’s interventions the economy can only grow at 1.5% is really pathetic. The market may continue its trend tomorrow regardless of the GDP print. Knowing what the GDP figure will be won’t help you in tomorrow’s market. We could guess if the Federal Reserve does not change its language in its policy statement the market will continue higher. If the Fed hints at winding down its massive asset purchase program may be a reason for a decline, but it is anyone’s guess. We continue to be in an uptrend and until we get our sell signals we’ll stay on the long side of the market.

We still have a few minor hiccups in the market right now. VMW, WDC, and STX were sore spots on the day and even with good earnings from F the stock couldn’t find buyers supporting higher prices. YHOO posted good results, but the stock gapped to the upside only to find itself lower on the day. Perhaps we are seeing some exhaustion, but not nearly enough to trigger a sell signal. Stay disciplined and keep your emotions in check!

Short-term trends:
TICKER ST TREND TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE %
SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 150.66 0.39%
IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 90.05 0.06%
QQQ UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 67.16 0.01%
USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 35.29 1.00%
UNG UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 18.36 -1.02%
GLD UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 160.99 0.44%
SLV UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 30.32 1.57%
DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 28.16 0.57%
FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 108.05 0.07%
FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 133.86 0.27%
TLT UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/29/2013 117.6 -0.55%

Crude oil – USO saw a big jump today along with SLV. Rising commodity prices will certainly squeeze the American consumer. Stay tuned.

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