From the Trading Desk

AAPL weighs on the NASDAQ as the S&P 500 Closes in the Green for the 6th day in a Row

AAPL was the talk of the street as the stock took a plunge on fourth quarter earnings. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected helping out on the job front (we’ll forget the surging number of people receiving food stamps and long-term disability). The market appeared poised to continue much higher with the market shaking off AAPL’s move. Just before noon time the NASDAQ had almost erased all of the day’s losses but sellers took over. Sellers dominated into the 2:00 pm EST hour when so when the VIX began to fall back helping the market come off the lows. NYSE and NASDAQ volume were higher giving the NASDAQ a day of distribution and a stall day for the S&P 500. We still have our uptrend and a rest here would make sense. However if this were to turn more sinister we have our exit plan.

Gold and silver took a big hit today while other commodities were able to hold up. Gold and silver have yet to push higher despite the Federal’s Reserve’s desire to print $85 billion a month without an expiration date. Perhaps the medals know something about next week’s Fed meeting that the other market don’t. For now, both remain in their short-term uptrends despite their action today.

Sentiment is at extremes with many surveys at multi-year highs. The AAII survey showed bulls at 53% highest since last February. Hulbert’s Financial Digest reading is at a level not seen since 2000. While this may be an indication upside may be limited we simply cannot trade off of it. The market may very well turn over here and head lower, but it is anyone’s guess and why we have sell rules in place. Stick to your game plan and execute.

Short-term ETF Trends:
TICKER ST TREND TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE %
SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 149.41 0.03%
IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 66.66 -1.38%
USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 34.76 0.43%
UNG UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 19.53 -2.35%
GLD UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 161.42 -1.10%
SLV UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 30.65 -1.73%
DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 28.07 -0.07%
FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 108.66 -1.69%
FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 1/24/2013 132.7 0.41%
TLT UPTREND CHANGE 1/24/2013 120.09 -0.35%

TLT signals a change in trend from downtrend to uptrend.

Have a great weekend.

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