From the Trading Desk

Stocks Power Ahead as Strength Continues

Once again the market powers ahead in heavier trade indicating higher prices are ahead. Homebuilder sentiment came in as expected hitting 6 year highs, but a potential deal is likely in the Fiscal Cliff saga. All that matters here is we have a ton of stocks breaking out and price action in the market supporting these moves. We can debate over what printing to infinity will do to the US Dollar, but for now we have a big uptrend in our midst. At this point, not getting behind this rally will only leave you wondering later why you didn’t get on-board. Until we get distribution piled up this market is going to continue higher. Very bullish action at today’s close this uptrend is for real despite its many flaws.

The biggest flaw in the market rally is the Federal Reserve debasing the US Dollar at an alarming rate. Printing more than 85 billion worth our currency and the effect it will have on our everyday life. Japan has been doing forever quantitative easing and it has failed to invigorate its economy. Maybe it will be different this time, but one thing is for sure prices all around will go higher. Initially, this will help our market given the recent price action. The real tricky piece will be when the Fed begins its exit from its endless money printing campaign.

We are seeing a tremendous amount of breakouts it is a huge positive for this market. Amazing we have yet to see a true follow-through day despite today coming very close to actually being one. At this point it is about obeying the price action and knowing your exits. There are many stocks breaking out and showing tremendous strength. Ignoring the price and volume action in these names will more than likely be futile. Even if this rally only lasts a month if you have a sound exit strategy you will be out before any harm is done. Opinions mean very little in the market and the market is always right.

Believe or not we have a rally and may be we’ll only squeak out a 10% rally, but one we’ll take. Remember, knowing your exits are just as important as knowing when you get into a position.

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  1. My concern is that the process in Washington DC will follow the model from Greece. In other words, a deal is announced & the market rallies. Three days later the agreement fails and so does the rally. We have done this multiple times over the years concerning Greece. At least here we have a Jan 1 deadline to force the issue and prevent that vertigo.

    • It is definitely a 100% legit concern. Today’s EOD action speaks to that. However, we have not had an across the board confirmation in indexes, ETFs, leveraged ETFs, inverse ETFs, leveraged inverse ETFs since October 2011 as we got yesterday. So I have to “believe” the market knows more than we do about this. However, since the last two years have been insane I have no qualms with going very pussyfooted here. I would love to have had a less volatile market and be able to place 5% in each new long thus having us over 60%+ invested at this juncture. Sadly, the tape has not cooperated with us and I am very happy to go slow here. Still, on a down day like today, to have only two sells (only one full) and two new clear signals is something positive we can take away on a day like today following the strong move yesterday.

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