For the second day in a row the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the NYSE Composite posted another day of distribution. It is an ominous sign for a newly developed rally to post back to back days of distribution after a follow-through day. Positive economic news from Durable goods to housing did very little to help this market today. Sellers jumped aboard just before the 10am hour, but were held back by another intraday rally like Monday’s session. It appeared as if the NASDAQ and others were ready to bolt to higher ground before Harry Reid and Mitch McConnel spoke about the Fiscal Cliff talks. The market couldn’t rebound and ended near the lows of the session as volume jumped. This rally has a negative tint to it and the next move on volume will spell out the direction we’ll head in the short-term.
Friday’s supposed follow-through day kicked off a new rally and the one thing you do not want to see is distribution within the first few days after the follow-through day. Unfortunately for this new rally is we have had back-to-back days of distribution. Monday’s intraday action was bullish, but still put the NYSE composite, S&P 500, and Dow into distribution camp. Today’s action was clear distribution and is not questionable. Distribution following a new confirmed market rally spells trouble for the rally attempt. I’d expect to see this rally fail shortly and we’ll be on the hunt for a new uptrend. If we move higher on strong move we’ll change our tune, but for now distribution is spelling trouble for this rally attempt.
Financials rolled over today with the XLF rejected at its 50 day moving average. Retail (XRT) still is having trouble with its 50 day moving average despite the media’s attention on how good Black Friday sales were. Oil and Gas was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 followed by financials. A sign the market is on shaky ground is from the only sector higher on the session being the Utilities. If we don’t see the market improve here look for utilities to show strength while the rest of the market heads lower.
If you jumped into the market yesterday or today remember to have an exit strategy. It will mean the difference when it comes down to your returns! Buying is the easy part.