The Big Wave Trading Portfolio switched from a successful SELL signal back to a NEUTRAL signal the past week as the DJIA, SP500, and Russell 2000 retook their 200 day moving averages. The Nasdaq remains below its respective 200 day moving average but that is due to AAPL and we took notice of last Friday’s very bullish intraday reversal on AAPL coming from very oversold conditions. Overall, we see it as constructive price action in the overall market.
While volume declined each day the past week, due to the holiday, it really doesn’t matter. This market has already proven that volume or no volume when the Fed is printing money and manipulating interest rates it simply doesn’t matter. Higher volume selloffs followed by lower volume rallies have been the norm since 2009. Until the ZIRP policy is abolished, we do not believe this will change any time soon.
The biggest problem with the low volume rallies is that prior to 2009 low volume rallies would not cause the model to switch like it does now. This unfortunately means that there will be more false signals and thus more times when we will have to cut our losses. Instead of watching the model switch 5-15 times in a year it is now switching around 20-30 switches per year the past two years. This simply would not happen in a normal market environment where the Fed basically lets asset prices rise and fall based on where the market expects fair value.
In the intermediate term we are in a seasonal uptrend cycle as we head into the final month of the year. Like always, January will be more-than-likely be the real tell to the trend of December. But being that it is December and that we are refusing to sell off after leading CANSLIM stocks have cracked across the board it means that the odds are in favor of prices rising going into the end of the year.
However, if you think we have any positions based on that assumption, you are 100% incorrect. All signals are price based. If prices break higher, we go long. If prices break lower, we go short. If we are wrong, we cut our losses immediately. There is no deviation from this model based on any indiscretions we may reserve about future market prices.
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Aloha and have a great upcoming week.
Top Current Holdings – Date of Purchase – Signal Date
AVD long – 129% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 111% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 54% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 51% – 4/26/12
ASTM short – 40% – 7/17/12
CSU long – 37% – 9/4/12
MAGS short – 25% – 4/18/12