The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal from August 3rd, following the past week’s market pullback. The pullback was overall orderly with only Tuesday being a session of concern. The fact that there were many stocks that made big moves following that session and that the market did not follow through immediately with the selling shows that the uptrend remains intact and in solid shape.
Despite the low VIX and high % of bulls to bears in the Investors Intelligence survey, the atmosphere remains overall toxic. Individual investors based on the AAII survey and the real-time Finviz survey continue to point to a public that is overall skeptic to bearish. The crowd is definitely not overall bullish. At best, it can be said that sentiment data points remain mixed.
What doesn’t remain mixed is price. Price is still trending higher on all time frames except the most short-term. If we get another distribution day or two, we might have some more short-term problems. However, the action in individual stocks in regards to long-term base structures, along with stocks already hitting new highs, indicates that the market might want to trend higher for a bit. I just would not expect any kind of explosive gains. Especially when the macro picture is at best not bad. 1% to 2% GDP growth is never going to light the fire underneath a country’s stock market.
For now, we will stick with this slow uptrend that is still not offering any what we would classify as “perfect” or even “near perfect” long signals. Trend following big priced stocks that trade a ton of volume by buying in the money options with low implied volatility as they cross above and below whatever moving average one uses continues to be a superior methodology compared to the once extremely profitable tried and true combination CANSLIM/momentum methodology.
Aloha everyone and I hope everyone is having a wonderful weekend!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 141% – 1/10/12
SVNT long – 70% – 9/10/12
NTE long – 61% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 52% – 6/19/12
CAMP long – 46% – 4/26/12
VRNM short – 35% – 4/10/12
SHF long – 34% – 8/1/12
PRXI short – 33% – 3/30/12
MAGS short – 28% – 4/18/12
STX long – 25% – 6/29/12