It is clear the market is waiting on the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve to act. Volume ended mixed with NYSE volume coming higher and NASDAQ ending lower. Institutions are certainly holding back from making any serious bets until central banks act. At this point either break in the market will certainly spell out a new trend. There are signs this market can go higher, but it is anyone’s guess at the direction of this market. We remain in an uptrend and until we get price confirmation otherwise we’ll stick with being long this market.
The disconnect between VIX and its ETFs is something to see, but the VIX continues to be sub-20. Fear of a rollover certainly hasn’t crept into the market just yet. The play here has been to sell the VIX and buy the index at morning lows. Even at the lows today the market found support, yet we continue to see the lack buying as the market approaches highs. While the market continues to consolidate gains from the summer lows we’ll need to see this market breakout sooner rather than later.
There is quite a bit data coming out in the next few days. Tomorrow morning we’ll see a reading from ADP regarding private employment. Last month’s number was better than expected showing modest private job growth. It will be interest to see if the private sector was able to see any sort of growth. The market will need to see either job growth or monetary easing to support any uptrend. The former would be the best for the market. In the end, it comes down to price and how it reacts to the news. We know our entries and exits and will follow price rather than our own opinions.
Finally the NFL season has kicked off! It is sad to see summer go away, but football helps ease the pain. Now with the NFL season kicking off it is now onto central banks and what monetary moves they make! Follow the price action and always cut your losses short.