From the Trading Desk
Anticipation of the Fed tomorrow is tremendous as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement. On the economic front today weaker than expected housing data failed to halt the rally in homebuilding stocks today. Homebuilding ETFs regained their 50 day moving average a show of strength. Buyers were out support stocks yet volume lagged [...]
A positive sentiment report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) helped propel stocks to the highs of the session. Prior to the NAHB report the Empire Manufacturing index jumped more than expected. However, a deeper look into the report showed some serious cracks. It wasn’t until after 2pm where the trouble began to [...]
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL condition, following a week of choppy price action. The overall market continued its choppy trading the previous week with neither the bulls or bears asserting any real directional power. The bottom line is that we remain trapped between the recent highs and lows of all the [...]
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Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal from 8/3/12, following the past week in the stock market. There was not much that went on this week that changed anything from the previous BWT Portfolio update. The only significant event this week occurred on Friday with Gold, Silver, and Platinum ripping higher following Ben Bernanke’s speech. A long position in GLD 150 calls two days ago paid off with a 32% gain today alone. We expect much further prices ahead for Gold, Silver, and Platinum and will use subsequent buy signals to increase our exposure to this area of the market.
As for stocks, everything remains under a steady albeit slow uptrend. Unfortunately, there continues to be below average volume on this move higher but NYSE turnover did come in above average on Friday and that is encouraging sign if we are to see continued higher prices. We do realize that historically low below average volume rallies can lead to severe and quick pullbacks as market participants return to the market. While this scenario is plausible, the technical action, along with the high level of shorts on the NYSE (NYSE short interest ratio is at 20.97), indicates that further price appreciation should occur.
There is not much else add to this report that was not already stated last week. Our focus will continue to be on commodities and precious metals, until higher overall volume on the general market indexes returns. Have a wonderful long Labor Day weekend everyone. Aloha!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 104% – 1/10/12
BVSN short – 82% – 3/19/12
NTE long – 55% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 41% – 6/19/12
VRNM short – 37% – 4/10/12
PRXI short – 35% – 3/30/12
CAMP long – 35% – 4/26/12
MAGS short – 29% – 4/18/12
STX long – 29% – 6/29/12
PHMD short – 27% – 5/11/12