From the Trading Desk

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

It was another summer-time trendless week, this past week, in the stock market. The decline on Tuesday switched our weak (10%) BUY signal to a NEUTRAL signal. The weakness that followed on Wednesday and Thursday was not enough to switch our model back to SELL as volume was below average and late day rallies took prices off their lows. On Friday stocks rallied but did so on the lowest volume of the week for the Nasdaq. Therefore, we remain under a NEUTRAL signal at Big Wave Trading, holding an extremely large amount of cash. Cash levels are at a point that has not been seen since late 2007 and early 2008. Everyone knows what happened post Q2 2008. This is to not say that will happen this time. Predicting the future is not our game, since it is 100% impossible to do. It is just a recent historical observation. Our game plan is clear. We are waiting for an above average volume breakout to the upside or downside. Once we receive that signal, we will invest accordingly. We are prepared for a rally, a sell off, or more sideways action. New positions continue to remain small, as historical signals that made significant gains in the past continue to throw off false signals. This amount of false signals has never occurred before in my career, spanning from 1996-now. Therefore, we get smaller and smaller and will remain small until our new positions start producing more and bigger wins to fewer and smaller losses. Recent Biotech, Small Banks, and REIT longs have done very well for us lately but they are not producing the gains I want to see right after initiating a position. Nothing is producing huge gains and it is 100% correlated to the overall market. This should surprise no one as 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general trend of the market. When the trend is trendless, you get weak moves. From February 3rd to Friday, the Nasdaq has moved 0.10%. From May 9th to Friday, the Nasdaq has moved -0.89%. Not quite a trending market, huh? This period will end. Hopefully, it ends faster than the 1976-1979 trendless market ended. If it doesn’t, it is not a big deal because there will be short trend burst here and there (think of July to August 2011, the Flash Crash of 2010, and the uptrend from September 2010-February 2011). During the trendless periods, we will continue to reduce our exposure as new signals fail and cut losses much faster and not give stocks room that we would normally not cut as fast and give more room to work in a trending market. Maybe we will get some movement next week. If we don’t, that is fine with me. Why? Because I can not control the stock market. I can’t make it do what I want it to do. The only way to be at peace with it is to let it do whatever it wants to do and subsequently not get greedy trying to ask it to produce a big uptrend or downtrend right now when it simply is not. If you want to beat today’s market and continue to beat today’s market year after year decade after decade, you have to be OK with whatever the market does in the now, even if you don’t want to. Enjoy the weekend! Aloha!

Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal

AVD long – 96% – 1/10/12
BVSN short – 77% – 3/19/12
CAMP long – 32% – 5/4/12
VRNM short – 31% – 4/10/12
WZE short – 29% – 4/10/12
MAGS short – 28% – 4/18/12
PRXI short – 27% – 3/30/12

Comments

  1. Sin Jat LAI says:

    What is your cash holding at the moment ?

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