From the Trading Desk

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading portfolios remain under a SELL signal generated on 5/4/12. The current market environment continues to weaken as stocks among all sectors (even defensive–outside of gold) are breaking down. The BWT portfolios will continue to work the short side (long side with Gold) until a real uptrend returns. We do not expect an uptrend to return to the stock market until at least October. While we are short, we understand that the crowd is already getting scared and this could produce a bounce back to the 50 day moving average. Even if this does occur the BWT system model will not be switching to a BUY signal until accumulation starts to clearly outstrip distribution. The bottom line is that individual stock and ETF charts are broken in every sector, outside of the dollar, treasury bills, gold, and gold miners. Until these other stocks can correct themselves with some consolidation on lower volume followed by breakouts on strong volume, any NEUTRAL or BUY signal will be weak and unimportant. It is going to take time to correct the damage that has occurred. There is not much else to add as we have been under a SELL signal for a month now. It is summer time and while it is supposed to be a time of “living easy (Sublime reference)” it is clearly not for the stock market. Until the price/volume action changes on the overall market indexes by a wide margin on the accumulation/distribution readings, we will continue to recommend 100% cash for the public retail investors and short positions for active traders/investors. Aloha everyone and have a wonderful upcoming week.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal

BVSN short – 76% – 3/16/12
AVD – 75% – 1/10/12
LQDT – 65% – 2/1/12
UVXY – 62% – 5/9/12
MNST – 40% – 1/13/12
VRNM short – 34% – 4/10/12
PHMD short – 34% – 5/11/12
MAGS short – 33% – 4/18/12
PRXI short – 33% – 3/30/12
SINO short – 32% – 4/12/12
ABR – 25% – 2/29/12

Comments

  1. Most of your commentary is usually solid but lately you seem to be in the business of being a prognosticator. How can you say October is the next rally. While I am aware of all the reasons why that could be possible don’t you think you are beginning to sound line cnbc? Less emotion and more factual commentary would be a place to start.

    • Matt –

      CNBC sells ad space and is not in the business of making you money. BWT does everything to help you become a great success. Thanks for reading! We are in interesting times and there isn’t any doubt about it. Looking forward to the volatility and the circus we’ll witness over the next few months!

    • I never predict the future or expect anything from the future. I lay out a blueprint based on 130 years of stock market and 200 years of futures data of what could happen. I can say October is the next time to expect a rally because historically over 75% of all up-trending markets start around or in the months of October and March. Only one FTD in the summer has led to a bull market during the past 20 years. Expecting an uptrend here, historically, would be foolish to bet on. Less emotion? I do not have emotions so I am not sure what you are talking about there. In fact I re-read my post and am pretty sure your claims of prognosticating and being emotional is completely unfounded and unsubstantiated. Aloha Matt. Have a wonderful week.

    • Also a quick note: I do not write the weekly commentary. I only write the BWT Portfolio Update. MarketSpeculator, my second-in-command at BWT, writes the weekly commentary. It should be noted he never predicts the future either. I should know. I have been working with him since before Big Wave Trading was launched. If he did predict the future or attempted to know what in fact was going to happen in the future he obviously would not be part of the BWT team. Big Wave Trading is always in the moment and only cares about one thing and one thing only: PRICE.

  2. Paul Carr says:

    Matt,

    I think Josh was saying to be very specifice not to expect a new uptrend till sometime in October. This does not mean we won’t rally along the way, but if you were to pull up charts of all the major indexs you can clearly see the downtrend upper right to lower left.

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