From the Trading Desk

AOI 1-16-01 to 6-1-01

This was one that I loaded up on since it was in a top sector (tobacco) during the current market and the breakout came on the third day after a follow-through. At the time I was almost for sure we bottomed as the Nasdaq rallied over 14% on 1/3/01. So the follow-through appeared to be the real deal and the stock was hot. But the market rolled over the next month, killing that rally. However, AOI continued to rally and by the time this stock topped you were rewarded with a 91% gain in 4 1/2 months. A great return in a horrible market. This goes to show current traders that it is possible to make good gains on the long side even in a bearish market environment.

the buy:

aoi1_16_01__Large_.PNG

the top:

aoi6_1_01__Large_.PNG

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Comments

  1. Hey there, I’ve been thinking about using your service for about a year, but anyway, I think it is remarkable that you have saved this info all this time since 2001. Maybe this is a dumb question, but how do you save this stuff?

    Thanks,

    Will

  2. I have all of this info from 1998. But I didn’t start buying stocks loaded with max green BOP until 1999. If you look back you will see there is just more than AOI in 2001. There are many stocks going back to 1999 including my best one LMLP and others like MRVC PARD NEWP LPTH.

    Anyways, i hope you join. we have been doing VERY WELL recently as you can see.

    Starling a member just mentioned that he is 30 for 30 with my shorts since December!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can’t get better than that.

    Stay tuned for more of the best past big winners with the nicest charts and some other past big winners with not so nice. I am running this series all the way up to the day when I am caught up to where i am currently invested.

    It should take a good 6 to 10 months, if I do one a day, every day, missing some days here and there.

    Aloha Will. I hope we see you in the chat room sometime in the future. Or in the forums. Or commenting on the post in the bronze and silver areas.

    Take care my friend!!!! Best of luck in this market. Cut your losses fast, when you are wrong and let your shorts run but make sure you take profits when they hit 20,30,50% gains..etc…

  3. starling Hunter says:

    Josh, there is a very remarkable and important lesson here: as you say, it is possible to find high quality longs even in a bear (downtrending market). Is it correct to assume that you don’t plan to hold them as long and that you don’t expect the gains to be as big?

    As for the chart itself, I find it interesting that you were able to hold on to this one. The big gap down on higher than average volume on 1/30 probably would have pushed me out if. Then again, it was not really high volume and maybe I would have needed to hold tight. If so, I would have been rewarded because it recovered the next day and gained about 70% in the less than three weeks.

    Another thing that I find interesting is that BoP remianed strongly green for several days after the top was put in and the end of May. It even continuned to climb for a week or so before starting to reverse. So in this case it lagged price. Any thoughts about this?

  4. Starling, the only thing changes in bear from bull. I take profits faster on the way up but once it hits the 100% mark…LET IT RUN.

    Exactly…it wasn’t high volume. The other thing. LOOK AT THE CANDLE. CLEARLY THAT IS BULLISH. CLEARLY THAT IS SUPPORT. I think I ONLY! sold like 10% then. So even back then I wasn’t afraid of these gap downs early on in stocks in strong industry groups, as long as they closed very bullish. This one did.

    Not all stocks top the same. There is nothing to look into. All you need to know is that it did. Never use BOP as a sell. The BOP was super strong but did you review that chart on an arithmetic chart? If you did, you will see that gain on that day which did not look climatic on a log was in fact very climatic and after that much of a rise in such a short period (April to June) the stock made its best move at the end on the highest volume so far of that move.

    The other thing that had me taking profits on the price/volume gain at the end of the run was that the market was VERY weak and that was making me nervous EVEN HOLDING THIS LEADING STOCK. I believe at the time Tobacco was either the #1 or #2 group for about three months but besides this leader others looked bad so I knew something was up. Sure enough three months later 9/11 happens and my political affiliation was sealed for LIFE!

    Great questions!!!!

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